It’s almost Fight Day and we’re headed back to the Meta APEX for UFC Vegas 120 this weekend.

After several fight week changes and additions, we have 12 matchups on the card headlined by a ranked lightweight scrap between Mateusz Gamrot and Quillan Salkilld.

All 24 fighters set to compete successfully made weight for the event, but it’s worth nothing Amanda Lemos took three attempts somehow before she made the strawweight limit.

UFC Vegas 120 Picks & Predictions

My favorite picks for UFC Vegas 120 are Ty Miller, Yadier del Valle, Alexia Thainara and Steven Asplund.

My favorite potential betting upsets for UFC Vegas 120 are Mateusz Gamrot and Bruno Lopes.

Ty Miller makes his second trip to the octagon and draws a favorable matchup with Billy Ray Goff where he’ll enjoy sizeable height and reach advantages.

I expect Miller to control the pace and distance in this one and he should be able to use his length to land the bigger, more damaging shots for a KO/TKO or decision win.

Yadier del Valle is coming off a deflating loss in his last fight but draws a great bounce back opportunity facing Darren Elkins in his retirement fight.

I expect del Valle to create more damage in this matchup and to be live for a TKO stoppage down the stretch.

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Thainara is getting a step up in competition against Amanda Lemos but it’s a matchup that I believe she’s catching at a great time.

Lemos has shown she consistently struggles against talented grapplers, and I expect that to be the case once again with Thainara mixing in takedowns, control and damage to get this one done on the cards or maybe by sub.

Asplund is looking to bounce back into the win column and gets an excellent chance here against an opponent he should be able to out-volume and overwhelm as the fight progresses.

The main event is a huge test for both fighters, but I expect Gamrot to slightly edge out Salkilld on the cards in a very competitive and close matchup.

UFC Vegas 120 Betting Card

For the UFC Vegas 120 betting card, I’m keeping things pretty tight since there simply aren’t a ton of spots that I trust at reasonably playable lines.

The parlays for this card are Ty Miller ML + Gamrot ML (+199 for .5 units), Sousa ML + Gamrot ML (+215 for .5 units) and Sousa to Win Ov1.5 Rounds + Asplund ML + del Valle KO/Decision Double Chance (+241 for .5 units).

Also took two small prop shots on Bruno Lopes by Submission (+425 for .25 units) and Lopes by Arm Triangle (+700 for .25 units).

Sousa was originally one of my four favorite spots this weekend and only swapped him out since this fight might be a bit more competitive, but I still love for him to get the job done over the debuting Richie Miranda.

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I’m not overly confident on Lopes getting the win but feel like those lines are too good to pass up since it’s by far his clearest route to victory and we’ve seen Nurgozhay struggle on the ground multiple times in the UFC.

Four of Lopes’ five submission wins have come via arm triangle.

That’s five bets for a total of 2 units on the UFC Vegas 120 betting card.

Kalshi/OddSmokerMMA Sign-Up Offer

We’re really excited to announce a new affiliate partnership with Kalshi that will allow us to expand our profit opportunities beyond just traditional sports betting.

If you’ve never checked them out, you can use our sign-up link for Kalshi and get their “Trade 25, Earn Up to 500” promo currently running for some extra trading funds.

You can also download the Kalshi app or visit their website and use promo code “OddSmokerMMA” while setting up your account to activate the bonus.

On top of prediction markets for MMA/UFC and other sports, they also offer a wide-ranging spread of other options including entertainment, politics, economics, culture and even the weather.

We’ll be running some plays over there moving forward, but as always, make sure to compare your lines/profits against your sportsbooks and always shop for the best spot.

UFC Belgrade Quick Recap

We had another decent weekend at the office with UFC Belgrade last week, going 10-4 on the picks and finishing up +1.38 units for the card.

If you missed the fights due the early start, I highly recommend rewatching as it set new modern UFC records for 1st round finishes and overall finishes for an event.

UFC Vegas 120 Notes & Wrap-Up

With multiple late additions to the lineup during fight week on top of some already tough fights to pick, this should be a really interesting card tomorrow.

This week will also feature the return of Dana White’s Contender Series, and while we don’t do full picks/bets for DWCS, it will give us one more option to occasionally mix into the plays.

We announced on the UFC Belgrade picks last week that we would be launching our first custom UFC fighter card in our Whatnot store this week, but unfortunately that’s been delayed due to slow shipping.

While you’re waiting with us on the drop, you can use our sign-up link if you’re new to Whatnot and get a free $25 to spend on their site to grab free or discounted cards and memorabilia if you’re a UFC collector.

Our loaded month of action continues next weekend with UFC 330 in Philadelphia capped by a pair of title fights, so be sure to check back for full UFC 330 Picks/Bets.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights this weekend!

UFC Vegas 120 Quick Picks

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