It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Vegas 121, and despite lacking a ton of star power on the lineup, I still expect this to be a pretty fun event from the META Apex in Las Vegas.

The card will be headlined by a bantamweight scrap between Raul Rosas Jr and Raoni Barcelos with each getting their first UFC main event opportunity.

The lineup also includes the two finals matchups for The Ultimate Fighter Season 34 to open the main card.

All 24 fighters set to compete on the card successfully made weight for the event after John Castaneda shaved his head to get under on his second attempt.

UFC Vegas 121 Picks & Predictions

My favorite* picks for UFC Vegas 121 are Rinya Nakamura, Luis Hernandez, Yazmin Jauregui and Raul Rosas Jr.

You might have noticed the asterisk there with “favorite” and that’s because my level of trust in this group is significantly lower than usual, but it’s who we have this week.

There are a lot of live dogs this weekend for UFC Vegas 121, but my favorites are Norma Dumont and Robert Bryczek.

Really like Rinya Nakamura’s matchup this weekend catching Brady Heistand returning from a significant layoff.

I expect Nakamura to be a bit better everywhere in the matchup honestly and should be live for a KO/TKO against an opponent who’s been dropped in three of four UFC appearances.

Hernandez is making his UFC debut 11 days after earning a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series and gets Sedriques Dumas on short notice.

I’d be shocked if this fight gets out of the first round and think Hernandez will try to get this one on the ground to chase submissions or a ground and pound finish.

Jauregui is the biggest betting favorite on the card, and while she should win comfortably, I wouldn’t touch that fight with a ten-foot pole for betting after she’s lost in some other favorable spots.

I’ve seen a lot of people taking Barcelos this weekend, and while I understand the logic behind it given his striking, I still like Rosas Jr to get this one done.

I think Rosas Jr will be able to avoid danger early and wear out Barcelos with his wrestling to eventually get this fight on the ground to chase finishes down the stretch and wouldn’t rule out a TKO win either.

UFC Vegas 121 Betting Card

For the UFC Vegas 121 betting card I’m keeping things pretty light with a pair of small parlays and a prop bet.

The parlays are Nakamura -3.5 Point Spread + Rosas Jr ML (+151 for .5 units) and Nakamura ML + Hernandez to Win Inside the Distance + Rosas Jr to Win Over 1.5 Rounds (+254 for .5 units).

The prop bet is Dumont by Decision (+185 for .5 units).

I’m not confident Nakamura will find a stoppage, but he should win pretty convincingly even on the cards.

As long as Rosas Jr doesn’t gas himself out early and manages his cardio, I think this will be his fight down the stretch.

The smaller cage in the Apex should help him track down the movement of Barcelos and help with the takedowns also.

Dumont and Perez should be competitive, but I think Dumont will stuff a majority of the takedown attempts and win rounds with better striking and more volume.

That’s a total of three bets for 1.5 units on the tracked betting card.

UFC 331 Quick Recap

We finally ended the skid on the bets last weekend at UFC 331 ending up at +1.13 units thanks to a huge performance from Joshua Van and Tai Tuivasa showing some brief signs of life again.

Was pretty happy with the betting card we put together but should have stuck to Chito Vera on the ML instead of chasing.

Absolutely didn’t expect Gable Steveson to get slumped cold before he could shoot a takedown, but I think we can write that one off as an acceptable loss.

Merch Updates & New Inventory

We got several new custom trading cards added to our online shops including Josh Hokit “Downtown”, Tommy McMillen “Voltage” and Gable Steveson “Fight Evidence”.

Another huge thank you to everyone who has already ordered cards, hung out with us during live shows on Whatnot and/or shown love on the work, it definitely means a lot.

We’re already eyeballing placing two more orders soon with a total of 12-14 new cards joining our growing selection, so be sure to check them out now available on Whatnot, eBay and Vinted.

We’re also going to start exploring some official fighter collabs on the custom cards, as well as some live signings in the future, so stay tuned for more info on that.

UFC Vegas 121 Notes & Wrap-Up

Overall, this lineup has gotten quite a bit of hate for the lack of star power on it, but these are often the cards that end up over-performing with some really fun fights and finishes.

This card rounds out the UFC action for September, but the loaded-up slate of continuous weekends with events continues next weekend with UFC 332 and October also has UFC 333 on the schedule.

Be sure to tune in to our socials this week for any early picks and bets for UFC 332, and we’ll also have some sales running on Damian Pinas and Ateba Gautier custom cards from the Heat Signature series.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

UFC Vegas 121 Quick Picks

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