It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Vegas 119 and we’re headed back to the Apex after one of the most historic and electric events in MMA history this past weekend with UFC Freedom 250.

The lineup this weekend features 12 matchups and will be headlined by Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi running back a matchup from their pre-UFC days with UFC Flyweight title implications on the line this time.

23 out of 24 fighters successfully made weight for the event with Kevin Borjas missing the flyweight limit by 3 pounds.

Borjas will be fined 20% of his fight purse and his bout with Andre Lima is set to proceed.

UFC Vegas 119 Picks & Predictions

My favorite picks for UFC Vegas 119 are Bia Mesquita, Michael Aswell, Andre Lima and Murtazali Magomedov.

My favorite potential betting upsets for this one are Ion Cutelaba and Luana Santos.

Mesquita looks to improve to 3-0 in the UFC women’s bantamweight division against Melissa Mullins and I love her chances to get it done and get another step closer to the rankings.

Bia has dominant grappling and submission skills, and I expect her to get this one down on the ground at some point for another finish victory by submission or ground and pound.

Aswell is looking to bounce back from a tough matchup in enemy territory earlier this year and I really like this spot for him against Gaston Bolanos this weekend.

Aswell should be the cleaner and more durable striker, and I think he’ll use his movement and range to rack up rounds on the cards or even find a late stoppage.

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I don’t love the fact that Borjas missed weight, but at the end of the day, I don’t think it changes much overall for Lima.

Lima should be the better striker here, more dangerous on the ground if it goes there and should be live to win down the stretch or on the cards.

Magomedov is making his UFC debut here in the Apex, but I really like the matchup for him against Baghdasaryan.

I expect Magomedov to be the more aggressive fighter with multiple paths to winning while Melsik has only made it the distance in one of his three fights during the past 5 years and just hasn’t been active enough.

UFC Vegas 119 Betting Card

For the UFC Vegas 119 betting card, I’m keeping things a lot tighter and closer to normal this weekend after getting cooked overall last weekend at The White House.

For the straight bets, I have Ion Cutelaba ML (+260 for .25 units), Cutelaba to Win Inside the Distance (+450 for .25 units), Mesquita by KO/TKO (+450 for .25 units) and Vinicius Oliveira by KO/TKO (+190 for .5 units).

The only parlay we have this week is Aswell ML + Mesquita to Win Inside the Distance + Oliveira ML (+157 for 1 unit).

Cutelaba is a wild card, as always when he fights, but I expect him to give Navajo Sterling the first real test of his UFC run as he finally gets a long-time veteran of the division with Ion.

Ultimately, I didn’t run Oliveira in my most confident spots, but he easily could’ve slid onto the list.

I think he’s going to look fantastic at this level of the featherweight division not draining to cut weight and should largely have his way with Andre Fili for however long it lasts.

That’s a total of five bets for 2.25 units for the UFC Vegas 119 tracked betting card.

Adrian Yanez Live Signing

If you missed the announcement last week, Adrian Yanez will be doing a live signing event online tomorrow June 20th at 4PM with JuanMorePack featuring gloves, custom & licensed cards, Q&A, inscriptions, giveaways and more.

Please be sure to jump on and check it out, say what’s up to Adrian ahead of his UFC 329 matchup in a few weeks and grab some custom cards we helped design or some of the other awesome items that will be available during the signing.

We really enjoyed getting to contribute to this project and if you’re a UFC collector, we also highly recommend checking out Juan’s selection of other items posted on there, his website and socials.

We’re also happy to announce we’re launching an OddSmokerMMA Store on there and have already uploaded several limited time shirt designs to get us started, so check them out too.

UFC Freedom 250 Quick Recap

The UFC White House card was one of the rare times in sports where the event felt like it lived up to expectations and hype, and while the numbers released so far (17 million views on Paramount+) aren’t quite the Super Bowl level some mentioned, they’re still impressive, nonetheless.

The walkouts, Marine Band music and production were phenomenal, and it really felt like an abbreviated USA version of the Noche UFC card held at The Sphere in 2024 except with the added boost of being outdoors.

Apologies to those who trailed on the UFC Freedom 250 bets, got a little too loose with the props and ran a few I probably shouldn’t have ultimately played in hindsight with Lewis and Chandler.

Hopefully, this week we’ll have a bit more luck and get back on track with a smaller and more targetted approach.

UFC Vegas 119 Wrap-Up & Notes

Overall, this should be a pretty entertaining card, and while we might not get the 100% finish rate we saw last weekend, I’m still expecting to see quite a few finishes inside the smaller octagon tomorrow night.

Check back next weekend for UFC Baku picks and bets to finish out the month before summer really gets hot with UFC 329 kicking off July on the 11th during International Fight Week.

As always, best of luck to everyone on their UFC Vegas 119 bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights!

UFC Vegas 119 Quick Picks

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