UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland - Free Picks, Predictions & Betting Card

It’s almost Fight Day for one of the most anticipated events and fights of the year with UFC 328 on the way from Newark, headlined by what should be a pair of extremely entertaining title fights.

Joshua Van is set to defend the UFC Flyweight belt against Tatsuro Taira in the co-main, while Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland will throw down for the UFC Middleweight title in the headliner.

25 out of 26 fighters successfully made weight for UFC 328, technically anyway.

Jeremy Stephens missed the lightweight limit by 4 pounds and will be fined 30% of his fight purse for his matchup against King Green.

And while Chimaev didn’t miss weight, his weigh-in is certainly causing a lot of controversy as many don’t believe the scale had even settled before they read off his weight.

He was the last to the scales, looked drained and was noticeably unrelieved even after supposedly making weight, so take that as you will.

UFC 328 Picks & Predictions

My favorite picks for UFC 328 this weekend are Ateba Gautier, Baisangur Susurkaev, Khamzat Chimaev and King Green.

My favorite potential betting upsets for UFC 328 are Roman Kopylov, Clayton Carpenter and Joel Alvarez.

Gautier is the biggest betting favorite on the card and even his prop bets are insanely cooked in this matchup against Ozzy Diaz, who has been KOed in both of his UFC loses.

I expect Gautier to be the much more dangerous striker with better durability and would be pretty shocked if this one gets out of the first round with it likely to end the first time Ateba lands clean.

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Susurkaev is getting another slight bump up in competition this weekend with Djorden Santos and I’m really liking the spot for him to keep rising.

I think Susurkaev will do a better job mixing his weapons, land some big shots and should be able to win rounds to get this one on the cards since Santos is fairly durable.

While I didn’t really love the scene at the weigh-in and not confident he actually made weight, Chimaev seemed fine at the ceremonial weigh-in and I’ll chalk it up to a tough cut.

Although Strickland has pretty decent takedown defense in general, I don’t think it’s going to hold up here against the relentless drive and pressure of Chimaev.

I think Chimaev is going to bull rush Strickland and put him on the ground in the opening seconds of this fight and wouldn’t be surprised if he finds the neck for a choke at some point.

This last spot was a bit tough to decide on but ultimately going with Green to win in a matchup between two long-time veterans of the sport.

I expect this fight to be a back-and-forth scrap on the feet for the most part and think Green will be the one landing more effectively to win the rounds.

UFC 328 Betting Card

For the UFC 328 betting card, we have a handful of prop bets and a few small parlays.

The prop bets for this one are Kopylov by KO/TKO (+400 for .5 units), Susurkaev by Decision (+200 for .5 units), Susurkaev by Unanimous Decision (+250 for .5 units), Alvarez to Win in R3/Dec (+370 for .25 units) and Chimaev by Submission (+130 for 1 unit).

The parlays are Jaren Gordon ML + Gautier to Win U1.5 Rounds + Chimaev to Win Inside the Distance (+187 for .5 units), Gautier ML + U0.5 Rounds Same Game Parlay (+230 for .5 units) and Volkov to Win in R3/Dec + Chimaev to Win U3.5 Rounds (+233 for .5 units).

In a matchup between strikers, I’m going with Kopylov to hold up better in exchanges and think there’s a good chance he can crack Tulio with a big shot of his own.

I’m very confident in Susurkaev this weekend, but less confident he’s going to keep his streak of stoppages alive against a tough opponent and like the chances this one goes to the judges.

Alvarez and Amosov should be one of the more competitive scraps on the card if Alvarez can avoid getting controlled the entire fight.

I think he’ll be able to defend a few takedowns, mix in some big shots with the striking and put himself in position for a late stoppage or to take a very close decision.

While Strickland has done well in the past defending takedowns, he’s never seen the wrestling Chimaev possesses and likely will bring here in my opinion.

Also, because of Strickland’s solid takedown defense against most opponents, he’s never actually had a submission attempt registered against him in the UFC to actually defend.

I think Chimaev is going to get this one down, actually find some success keeping it there and that his squeeze is going to be too much if he gets across the neck or face of Strickland.

Gautier should be able to put away Diaz in the opening exchanges, and I think he’ll be hungry for another highlight after going to decision for the first time in his last fight.

That’s eight bets for a total of 4.25 units for the UFC 328 tracked betting card and also have Chimaev ML to hopefully cash an open untracked ticket from this past week.

It’s been a few weeks since I last posted it, but for anyone who likes futures bets, I have a parlay out for the UFC Freedom 250 card with O’Malley/Gane/Topuria at +195 and currently still available at +180 on DraftKings.

Merch Announcements & More

We’re extremely excited to announce our newest merch collaboration is a 3-design drop with UFC heavyweight Alvin “Goozie” Hines ahead of his upcoming return at UFC Oklahoma City against AJ Frye on July 18th!

You can head over to his MILLIONS account to grab one and be sure to check out Alvin’s recent interview with Kala on The CageWalk Podcast while you’re there too.

We also have our new drop with Dione Barbosa available to purchase over there and she’ll be fighting on the UFC OKC card as well against Veronica Hardy.

Huge thank you to everyone who has picked up merch from one of our six UFC fighter collaborations and for continuing to make things like this possible for us in the future.

Hopefully we’ll have at least one more collaboration dropping around the same time frame, so stayed tuned for that one and some other things currently in the works.

UFC 328 Wrap-Up & Notes

Win or lose, I think there’s a good chance this will be the last time we see Chimaev at middleweight considering the way he looked on the scales for this one and his stated desire to chase gold at light heavyweight.

I’m really excited for the co-main between Van and Taira as well, that should be one of the more entertaining scraps we’ve had at the top of flyweight in a bit.

Huge shoutout to Memphis Wrestling for helping us advertise and continue to grow our business at OddSmokerMMA!

If you’re a fan of wrestling, you know the city of Memphis has always had deep roots when it comes to the squared circle, and Memphis Wrestling is by far the best in the business around here so check them out if you’re in the Mid-South.

Overall, I expect UFC 328 to be a pretty fun night of fights with a lot of high-level matchups spread across the card.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights tomorrow!

UFC 328 Quick Picks

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