UFC Vegas 64: Complete Picks, Predictions & Previews

We are just one more sleep from UFC Vegas 64 tomorrow night which will be headlined by Marina Rodriguez vs Amanda Lemos in a battle to determine who will likely be receiving a UFC Strawweight title shot at some point in 2023.

Below are the official OddSmokerMMA Picks, Predictions, and Previews for all 12 fights currently scheduled for the UFC Vegas 64 card this weekend:

Ramona Pascual – Pascual is the better overall fighter and will be dropping down in weight for this fight. Pascual is 0-2 in the UFC, largely because she was struck over 250 times combined in those two fights. However, it doesn’t seem like that’s the type of game plan Vidal will utilize as she will almost certainly be looking to grapple and chase submissions. I think that style will benefit Pascual here and allow her to get a comfortable decision.

Jake Hadley – Hadley is coming off the first defeat of his career in his last fight, which was a disappointing decision loss that saw him get largely dominated in the grappling game. While Carlos Candelario has decent grappling, I don’t think he will have nearly the same level of success getting and keeping Hadley down on the ground. I think Hadley is the more dangerous fighter overall and will be able to get this one down via decision or possibly a late stoppage.

Johnny Munoz Jr – I don’t really have a great feeling on this fight and have no intention of betting on it, but I ended up giving the slight lean towards Munoz Jr here. There’s a pretty decent chance this will be another fight to open the card that goes the distance and I think it will be a close decision with Munoz Jr picking up the win.

Check out Nate Latshaw’s Full UFC Vegas 64 Companion

Jinh Yu Frey – Frey is definitely the more well-rounded fighter in this one, but she will need to be extremely careful early to avoid the submission attempts that Polyana Viana will be trying to find. Viana is an extremely dangerous fighter but has shown that if she can’t find a stoppage early, she’s not very reliable down the stretch in fights and her odds of winning rapidly decrease after five minutes. I’ll take my chances on Frey to survive the early danger and pull away to a comfortable decision victory.

Mario Bautista – I really like Bautista in this one. He’s shown to be a very dangerous fighter within the bantamweight division and is coming off a fairly impressive submission win in his last fight. Lopez will be returning from a three-year layoff and there are just way too many questions surrounding him to comfortably pick him in this fight. I think Bautista has the ability to get Lopez out of there down the stretch and could see it ending via submission.

Miranda Maverick – These two already fought back in 2019 and Maverick absolutely demolished Shanna Young enroute to a first-round submission victory. I see absolutely no reason to believe the same thing won’t happen again. Young is a decent fighter, but Maverick is clearly the more dominant grappler of the two and should be able to work this one down to the ground and get Young out of there sometime in the later rounds.

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke – I feel like this fight goes one of two ways: either Darrick Minner will catch an early submission and get this one over with in the first few minutes or Nuerdanbieke will pretty much have his way down the stretch in this one. I trust that Nuerdanbieke can survive the early submission threat from Minner and will be able to outpoint him or put him away down the stretch.

Grant Dawson – Dawson is one of my favorite picks on this card despite the fact that he will be facing an undefeated opponent with UFC experience in Mark Madsen. Dawson is absolutely the more dangerous fighter of the two and will have finishing ability throughout this fight in pretty much every situation. I think he will be the better striker and if Madsen does have success grappling, I still believe Dawson will be the more dangerous fighter on the ground and in scrambles. I’ll take Dawson by decision or a late sub.

Tagir Ulanbekov – This was one of my tougher picks on the card, as I really like Nate Maness and think he is absolutely live for an upset here coming down in weight. However, I’m just not confident I can trust him to avoid the takedowns and stay on his feet enough here to really get going and open up his striking. Maness can definitely find a fight-ending shot on the feet, but if he doesn’t, I think Ulanbekov will do enough to get this one done in a potentially split decision.

Josh Parisian – Flip a coin for this one, that’s basically what I did to pick a winner in this battle of non-contenders at heavyweight. Both fighters are decent, but neither one has shown to be particularly reliable at this level. I think both of these guys will be exchanging some heavy shots early and trust Parisian to either put this one away relatively quick or do enough to get the decision.

Daniel Rodriguez – This is another fight I’ve back and forth with, but ultimately, I’m going to trust Rodriguez to be the more dangerous fighter and get this one done in a very tight matchup. Neil Magny is far from a pushover and will have a fairly sizeable 6″ reach advantage here, but I think Rodriguez will be able to navigate around that length and still be able to do damage on Magny. This one probably goes to the scorecards, and I hate betting against Magny in a decision where he has gone 16-2 in his career. However, I still think Rodriguez can do enough to squeeze this one out and pull off the slight betting upset.

Marina Rodriguez – Both of these women are contenders in the strawweight division and possess a fairly decent amount of finishing equity for the weight class. While Amanda Lemos will definitely be dangerous early and possibly get a round or two, I love Rodriguez in this one down the stretch. Lemos doesn’t have experience going deeper than 15 minutes and has shown to have questionable cardio even late into those fights. Rodriguez has been 25 minutes now multiple times in the UFC and landed 125+ strikes in each of her last two fights that went the full five rounds. I think Rodriguez comfortably takes the latter rounds of this one and could potentially even get an exhausted Lemos out with a late KO.

My favorite picks: Mario Bautista, Grant Dawson, Marina Rodriguez, Jake Hadley

My favorite betting underdogs: Ramona Pascual, Jinh Yu Frey, Daniel Rodriguez

If you are looking for bets for UFC Vegas 64, be sure to check out the first five that we have placed and come back to OddSmokerMMA for our full Betting Card prior to the start of tomorrow’s fights!

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One response to “UFC Vegas 64: Complete Picks, Predictions & Previews”

  1. […] This will be a quick post with the updated full betting slate for today’s event, so if you are looking for a more detailed breakdown for the card and some of the earlier plays on the slate, check out the full OddSmokerMMA Picks, Predictions and Previews. […]


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