It’s Fight Day for UFC Vegas 117 and we’ve got a pretty good lineup on the way from the APEX later today with a featherweight scrap between Arnold Allen and Melquizael Costa headlining the card.

The lineup features 13 bouts and had a couple of late changes with Tommy Gantt and Modestas Bukauskas getting new opponents during fight week.

Despite the changes and late additions to the card, all 26 fighters successfully made weight for the event.

UFC Vegas 117 Picks & Predictions

My favorite picks this weekend are Modestas Bukauskas, Tommy Gantt, Nicolle Caliari and Malcolm Wellmaker.

My favorite potential betting upsets for UFC Vegas 117 are Tuco Tokkos and Polyana Viana.

Bukauskas got a new opponent during the week with Christian Edwards stepping up in the spot and I really like Bukauskas in this new spot.

I think The Baltic Gladiator will be able to defend takedowns, control distance and land the more damaging shots in this fight to pick up a decision or late stoppage.

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Gantt is another fighter who picked up a new opponent during fight week, and while he drew a pretty good one, I still like his chances to get things done in his debut.

I expect Gantt to get his wrestling going, find some takedowns/control and be able to hold his own in the striking exchanges to pick up the win in a competitive decision.

Caliari is dropping down to strawweight for this matchup against Shauna Bannon and I think she’s going to find some success in her new division.

She should be able to hold her own on the feet and I expect her to work in some takedowns where there’s a decent chance that she can keep her 100% finish rate alive in the latter rounds.

Wellmaker is looking to bounce back from his first career loss last time out and gets another tough, debuting opponent here with Juan Diaz.

While Wellmaker struggled adjusting to Ethyn Ewing on short notice, I think he’ll be prepared for Diaz’ style and be able to land the bigger, more damaging shots in the striking exchanges for a decision or late KO/TKO win.

UFC Vegas 117 Betting Card

For the UFC Vegas 117 betting card this weekend, there isn’t a ton that I love, but ultimately taking a shot on a moneyline, a few prop bets and a couple of medium sized parlays crossed with the MVP MMA card.

The moneyline play is on Tokkos (+170 for .5 units), while the prop bets are Caliari to Win Inside the Distance (+300 for .25 units), Petroski by Submission (+300 for .5 units) and Viana by Submission (+550 for .25 units).

The parlays are Jason Jackson ML + Bukauskas ML + Ngannou/U1.5 Rounds/KO SGP + Rousey by Submission (+248 for .5 units) and Vieira/Cavalcanti to Go the Distance – Yes + Gantt ML + Jackson ML + Bukauskas ML (+199 for .5 units).

I expect Tokkos to be able to weather the early danger in his matchup with Erslan, get some takedowns going and to potentially find a finish down the stretch.

There’s a handful of early fights on this one that I feel like could end inside the distance and likely by sub, so decided to take a shot on a few of them.

Caliari and Viana should be the more dangerous fighters on the ground than their respective opponents and I think Petroski will be very live to take advantage of any mental lapses by Cody Brundage in their matchup.

That’s six bets for a total of 2.5 units on this week’s UFC Vegas 117 tracked card.

MVP: Rousey vs Carano

As you noticed in the bets, I’m running a couple of plays tied to the MVP MMA card tonight because even with the long layoffs for some of the fighters involved, their spots still felt more trustworthy to bet than most of the UFC spots.

I’m expecting Ronda Rousey and Francis Ngannou to win with highlight reel stoppages fairly early in their fights, while Jackson is one of the more reasonably priced MLs on the card.

Also taking a small shot on Junior dos Santos (+330 for .5 units), but the line has dropped a decent bit, so not sure I’d still run it unless you can get it around +300 anywhere.

Even still, I really like JDS in the spot.

As long as he can avoid getting sparked out in the opening seconds, he should be able to find some control and wear on Robelis Despaigne, who has shown he’s pretty one dimensional at MMA.

While I’m not confident this card will live up to the hype Rousey has tried to put on it, I’ll still definitely be watching it on a second screen because there’s a lot of fun matchups sprinkled throughout the lineup.

UFC Vegas 117 Wrap-Up & Notes

Apologies for getting the UFC Vegas 117 picks out a bit late this week, should be able to get them back out a bit earlier for the next card, which will be May 30th with UFC Macau after an off week coming up.

Reminder that we have new merch collabs up with Dione Barbosa and Alvin Hines ahead of their respective matchups at UFC Oklahoma City coming up in June, so be sure to check those out and show them some love.

We still have some feelers out and a couple of others in the pipeline for this summer and will hopefully have some more updates to share soon on that front.

Overall, this is a pretty tough card for the picks/bets with just about everyone having a reasonable case and path to victory, so we’ll see how it plays out.

We had a brutal outing last weekend for UFC 328 on the bets with some early card method misfortune and Chimaev taking his first loss, but as is the case with betting, you take the downs with the ups, and we’ll bring it back eventually.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights tonight!

UFC Vegas 117 Quick Picks

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