The octagon returns to the Big Apple tonight for UFC 295 and we should have an awesome night of fights in store with this one. There are 13 bouts scheduled for the card and it will be headlined by two title fights that should be absolute fireworks. Jiri Prochazka will attempt to regain the UFC Light Heavyweight title when he faces Alex Pereira in the main event. Pereira will be attempting to win gold once again at MSG, this time in a second UFC division. In the co-main event, the future of the heavyweight division is here with Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich meeting for the interim UFC Heavyweight title.

Normally, I give my most four most confident picks of the card in this section, but I’ll be skipping that this weekend because there honestly aren’t four spots that I’m highly comfortable on with this event. However, I do have a couple of strong leans for this card. I like Alex Pereira’s chances in the main event to get the job done down the stretch or by points against Prochazka. I also feel pretty good about Sergei Pavlovich in the co-main event, although that matchup is closer to coin flip in my opinion. For more of my thoughts on both of those matchups, check out my UFC 295 WagerWire article for this weekend.

As for the betting this weekend, I’m not going to be running any parlays on my official card and will just be attacking some props that I really liked for some small shots. I split one-unit across three bets on Alex Pereira in the main event: Pereira to Win and Ov 1.5 (+165, .5 units), Pereira by KO/TKO in R3/4/5 (+550, .25 units), and Pereira by Decision (+850, .25 units). I put half a unit on Pavlovich by KO/TKO in R1/2 at +170 in the co-main event since that’s by far his most likely route to winning tonight. The rest of my plays for tonight are for .25 units each and are a mix of props I thought were worth sprinkling: Andrade by Decision (+450), Frevola by KO/TKO (+390), Lopes by Decision (+500), Ricci by Decision (+220), and Sadykhov by Decision (+300). All bets combined are 2.75 units out in total, and we only need a few to start hitting in the green. Best of luck to everyone tonight that’s tailing and hope everybody enjoys the fights!

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