The UFC returns to Sydney, Australia later today with an exciting lineup headlined by Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland for the UFC Middleweight title. While the main card is a bit lackluster for a PPV event, the overall card features a handful of fun matchups and I’m expecting quite a few finishes and another very active and engaged atmosphere in the arena as we’ve seen lately with non-Apex events. For a more detailed preview of tonight’s card, check out my WagerWire UFC 293 Quick Preview.

The official weigh-in for this event went pretty smoothly, with only one fighter missing weight (Shane Young missed the featherweight limit by nearly four pounds for his matchup with Gabriel Miranda). Beyond that, it’s worth noting that Sean Strickland seemed particularly burnt out during the official UFC weigh-in show while being interviewed and admitted the extra pound to make championship weight was a bit rough. He looked much better later in the day for ceremonial weigh-ins, so we’ll see what effect it has on him in the cage, if any at all.

My favorite picks for this event are Israel Adesanya, Carlos Ulberg, Manel Kape, and Nasrat Haqparast. I think all four fighters will be live for KO/TKO stoppage wins in their respective matchups, although a couple will most likely end up going to decision. While I’m happy for Strickland to get his shot at the title, there’s just no way I can see him beating Adesanya in this one. Izzy will be the much more dangerous striker and I expect him to largely cruise to a dominant decision or late stoppage. Ulberg has been on an absolute tear lately, and I expect that to continue here in this one with another KO/TKO finish. Kape and Haqparast both have sizeable experience edges in their matchups, and I expect both of them to pick up wins via decision or KO/TKO stoppages.

As far as betting goes this weekend, I’m mostly loading up on small parlays that are capped off with Adesanya to setup for an easy hedge if needed since the lines are so wide on the fight. In no particular order: Ulberg/Turkalj/Adesanya MLs (+203), Jousset ML + Izzy/Ov1.5 (+141), Ulberg ML + Tafa/Lane No R3 + Adesanya R4/5/Dec (+205), Mariscal + Adesanya MLs (+212), Haqparast ML + Ulberg by KO/TKO + Kape ML (+151). I ran each of those for one unit a piece and placed half a unit on Kape by Points (+325). I also took advantage of the DraftKings promo that boosts Adesanya ML to +100 for the $10 max. Normally I’m a bit hesitant seeing boosts like that, but with the low max wager and the fact books are reporting a lot of action on Strickland, I’m not overly concerned on this one. Best of luck to everyone and enjoy the fights!

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