UFC Las Vegas: Yan vs Dvalishvili – Picks & Predictions

Coming off an all-time great event last weekend with UFC 285, the promotion returns tomorrow with UFC Las Vegas in what should be another fun and entertaining card. While this event is a Fight Night event in Las Vegas, it will not be held in the UFC Apex as most have been in recent years. Instead, this card will take place at The Theater at Virgin Hotels. It’s important to note, however, that they will still be using the smaller 25-foot octagon for this event.

Weigh-in results are final, and we lost one fight after two major misses on the scales: Jared Gooden and Ricardo Ramos. Gooden weighed in at 177 pounds, which is six pounds above the welterweight limit. He is stepping on three days’ notice against Carlston Harris. Ramos, meanwhile, missed weight by a whopping eight pounds, which is a huge red flag and has subsequently caused that fight to be scrapped altogether. That leaves us with 13 fights.

While this card definitely has some great fights, I don’t intend to hammer too much with it being wedged between two PPV events (UFC 286 takes place next weekend in London). However, there are still a few spots that I like too much to pass up, so there will be a few bets for this card. Be sure to check out our WagerWire Quick Preview for UFC Las Vegas for more information on this event. There’s a lot of extremely close matchups on this one and I’m expecting a handful of upsets spread throughout this card.

With that out of the way, here are the OddSmokerMMA Picks & Predictions for UFC Las Vegas:

Carlston Harris – Harris is 17-5 with 10 stops and will be facing Jared Gooden, who is stepping into this one on extremely short notice to get back into the UFC. Gooden is 22-8 and he went 4-1 during his time since being let go previously by the promotion in 2021. With this one being announced midway through fight week, I didn’t have a chance to give it the full breakdown treatment. With this one being on such short notice for Gooden, I think Harris should be able to pull this one out via decision, but that is not a confident pick and I’ll definitely be passing on betting this fight.

Tyson Nam – Nam is 21-12-1 with 13 stoppages and 12 of them coming via KO/TKO. He’ll be facing 12-5-2 Bruno Silva, who has eight stoppage wins of his own. Nam has won three of his last four fights and will enter this one with 3″ height and reach advantages. Silva will be the younger fighter in the matchup by seven years and he is also returning from a two-year layoff for this one. Both fighters have negative strike differentials and although Nam doesn’t utilize takedowns, he has a perfect 100% takedown defense in the UFC. I expect this to be a close fight that likely makes it to the judges for a decision, and I think Nam will be the one getting the win.

Victor Henry – Henry is 22-6 with 14 stoppages and has never been stopped. He’s 1-1 in the UFC so far and has had a confusing run in his time with the promotion winning as a big underdog in his debut before losing as a heavy favorite in his second fight. He’ll be facing Tony Gravely this weekend. Gravely is 23-8 with 13 stoppages, but he’s also been stopped in six of his eight losses with five via submission. Both fighters have positive strike differentials, but Henry has the higher output and volume. This fight likely comes down to Henry’s ability to defend the takedown attempts that will be coming from Gravely. I think Henry has a much better performance this time out and will be able to pick up a comfortable decision win or even a late submission stoppage.

JJ Aldrich – Aldrich is 11-5 with two stoppages and will be facing 14-8 Ariane Lipski at UFC Las Vegas tomorrow. Aldrich is entering this fight off a loss to Erin Blanchfield but had won her previous three fights before that. Lipski has dropped three of her last four fights and has been stopped via KO/TKO in four of her eight losses. Both of these fighters have negative striking differentials and neither of them are particularly strong grapplers either. Lipski is 3-5 in the UFC and has only landed one takedown during those eight fights. I think Aldrich will be the slightly more well-rounded fighter here and Lipski is going to have a problem getting the fight to the ground if she gets in trouble. I expect Aldrich to get this one done on the scorecards, but I don’t love her betting line for this one.

Mario Bautista – Speaking of betting lines that I don’t love, Bautista is the biggest favorite of the weekend with a Moneyline above -1000 at most sportsbooks. Bautista is 11-2 with eight stoppages and has won three straight fights. He’ll be facing 43-year-old Guido Cannetti on this card. Cannetti is 10-7 in his career and although he’s coming off back-to-back wins, he had dropped four of his previous five fights. Bautista will be 13 years younger in this matchup and is the better fighter all the way around. He has a lot of volume and power in his striking and is extremely dangerous on the ground as well. Cannetti has been stopped in six of his seven losses as well, with four of them via submission. I definitely expect Bautista to come out early in this one and get the stoppage sometime in the first two rounds, likely via submission, but I wouldn’t entirely rule out the knockout either in this one.

Sedriques Dumas – Dumas is 7-0 with six stoppages and will be making his UFC debut against Josh Fremd this weekend. Fremd is 9-4 with seven stoppages, but he has gone 0-2 in the UFC and is only 2-3 in his last five fights overall. Dumas won via first round submission on DWCS last season, and he’ll have a 3″ reach advantage in this matchup. Fremd has a negative striking differential, isn’t great with takedowns, and has been taken down a whopping 11 times through his first two UFC fights. I think Dumas will land the more damaging strikes on the feet and will also be able to get the fight down to the ground if needed. Dumas is a very dangerous finisher and I expect him to add another stoppage here.

Davey Grant – Grant is 14-6 with twelve stoppages and will be facing Raphael Assuncao this weekend. Assuncao is 28-9 with 14 stoppages and is coming off an impressive win over Victor Henry in his most recent fight. Both fighters have similar striking and grappling numbers here, although Grant will have an advantage in the striking volume and likely damage as well. Grant’s last three wins have come via KO/TKO, while Assuncao is coming off four consecutive losses prior to his win over Henry. Grant will have 3″ height and reach advantages here, and I expect him to be able to start landing heavy and often in the striking exchanges here. Grant should definitely get the win in this one and I think it will be via stoppage.

Lukasz Brzeski – Brzeski is 8-2-1 with seven wins via stoppage and he will be making his second trip to the octagon this weekend. Brzeski will be facing Karl Williams, who is 7-1 with three KO/TKO wins and making his UFC debut after an impressive decision win on DWCS. Brzeski dropped his debut in a questionable decision after almost doubling the striking output of his opponent and will be looking for his first win in the promotion. This is a close matchup without a ton of data to use for the breakdown, but I’m leaning with Brzeski to get the win in this one as long as he is able to stay upright and avoid the takedowns from Williams. Hopefully Brzeski will have some good karma with the judges after his last decision.

Anton Turkalj – Turkalj is 8-1 with seven stoppages and will be making his second trip to the octagon when he faces Vitor Petrino tomorrow. Petrino is 7-0 with six knockouts and will be making his debut after a win on DWCS. Turkalj wasn’t signed after a decision win on DWCS, but he was brought as a short-notice opponent to face Jailton Almeida in his debut (his only loss). Neither fighter has faced great competition early in their careers, but Turkalj at least gained experience facing Almeida. I think Turkalj will be able to survive the early KO threat from Petrino in this one and will likely be able to find a stoppage of his own down the stretch or get the 29-28 decision.

Jonathan Martinez – This should be one of the more entertaining fights of the card as 17-4 Martinez takes on 17-2 Said Nurmagomedov. Martinez has ten wins via stoppage, while Nurmagomedov has nine stoppages of his own. Both fighters are coming into this one on four-fight winning streaks and stoppage wins in their most recent fights. Both fighters are extremely dangerous strikers with positive strike differentials, but Nurmagomedov has absolutely terrible takedown accuracy, landing only 9% of his attempts. Martinez should be the slightly better striker in this matchup and will have the option to get this fight on the ground if he gets into trouble, whereas Nurmagomedov will likely be stuck on his feet with nowhere to go. Both fighters are durable so I expect this one to go the distance and Martinez should be able to squeeze this one out on the cards.

Ryan Spann – This fight was originally booked to headline UFC Vegas 70 two weeks ago but was postponed after Nikita Krylov was forced to withdraw on the day of the fight due to a stomach issue. The fight will now take place at a 215-pound catchweight and will only be three rounds instead of five. I liked Spann in the original matchup, and nothing has changed since then on his side. For more information on that fight, check out our UFC Vegas 70 Picks and Predictions, but I expect Spann to get this one done via stoppage and love the value on him to win via submission.

Alexandr Romanov – Romanov is 16-1 with 15 stoppages and will be trying to bounce back from the first loss of his career when he takes on Alexander Volkov in the co-main event. Romanov had an absolutely dominant start against Marcin Tybura in his last fight before ultimately gassing out and losing via decision. Volkov, who is 35-10 with 26 stoppages, has gone 3-2 in his last five fights and is coming off a first round KO/TKO win. While Volkov certainly has the experience advantage here, Romanov will have a massive grappling advantage and will almost certainly look to use it early. I’m willing to chalk his issues up in his last fight to the altitude since the card took place in Salt Lake City, Utah and multiple fighters struggled that night. Volkov has been stopped in five of his ten losses, so it’s entirely possible Romanov can get him out early and I think he will. I expect Romanov to use the smaller octagon to his advantage and get this one to the ground quickly and grind Volkov out for a submission win in the first two rounds.

Petr Yan – Yan is 16-4 with eight stoppages and will be looking to end a nightmare stretch that has seen him go 1-3 in his last four fights. He’ll be facing Merab Dvalishvili, who is 15-4 and enters on an eight-fight winning streak. Yan has had terrible luck on the scorecards in a couple of recent fights, but has looked pretty solid for the most part, while Dvalishvili has earned his nickname as “The Machine” by grinding out seven decisions in his last eight wins. However, Dvalishvili has no championship experience in the UFC, while Yan has seen the championship rounds a handful of times now. Both fighters have positive striking differentials, but Yan is the much cleaner striker in my opinion, while Dvalishvili will be the much better grappler. While Dvalishvili is great at scoring takedowns, Yan is equally good at defending, managing to stop 90% of attempts he’s faced. And while Aljamain Sterling was able to control him the couple of times he was able to land takedowns on Yan, I don’t think Dvalishvili will have the same luck. I expect the first couple of rounds to be fairly close, but Petr Yan should pull away down the stretch in this fight. Dvalishvili has shown a tendency to get a bit reckless sometimes with his striking and that could be a costly mistake in this one. I expect Yan to win by unanimous decision if it goes the distance and definitely think a late round KO/TKO is worth taking a look at here as well.

My favorite picks of this card are Petr Yan, Alexandr Romanov, Davey Grant, and Ryan Spann. I really like Mario Bautista and JJ Aldrich also, although both of their lines are a little wider than I would prefer to bet. If you don’t mind waiting another week to cash out some plays, Casey O’Neil and Rafael Fiziev are two fighters on the UFC 286 card that I intend to include on a ticket before their Moneylines likely swell next week.

Be sure to check out our social media accounts on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok for all of the bets I’ll be running and spots that I would recommend taking a look at. Best of luck to all of the bettors tomorrow and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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