Fight day is quickly approaching for UFC Vegas 62 Grasso vs Araujo, with just over 48 hours until the event starts. Sportsbooks are finally starting to open up their prop markets, so I figured it was the perfect time to go ahead and drop my picks and some of my favorite nuggets for this card.

Keep in mind that we still have to get through weigh-ins tomorrow, so there is potential I have to make a last-minute adjustment or two on the fly, but this post will be updated if that occurs.

However, barring any bad weight cuts, fight cancellations, or fighter shuffling a la UFC 279, I think I have mostly settled on the sides I like for this one.

Below are my picks, predictions, and more for UFC Vegas 62:

Pete Rodriguez – Rodriguez is the pick here, but there’s zero chance that I’ll be touching this fight from a betting standpoint. Neither fighter has a ton of experience and both of them have glaring holes or unknowns in their fight games. Rodriguez should land the heavier shots and put Jackson away relatively early in this one, but there’s no chance I’m laying chalk on a winner/method/round combo (currently sitting around -165). Particularly after we just saw Dean Barry choke and get DQed against Jackson as a -1200 favorite. While the odds make this one almost unplayable, Rodriguez is a comfortable pick here and should get the job done via early KO.

Tatsuro Taira – Taira is one of my more confident picks for this event and should be able to get the job done with relative comfort. What’s harder to narrow down on this one would be the method by which he picks up the win, but I’m leaning towards a potential finish here for Taira. Of his eight career finishes, seven of them have come in the first round. However, Vergara is pretty durable and has only been finished once in his pro career, so more than likely if Taira gets the stop in this one, it’ll be in the later rounds. I’ll take Taira by sub in the second or third round.

Piera Rodriguez – I’m very high on Rodriguez and the potential she has in this division moving forward in the UFC. I bet her in her debut earlier this year against Kay Hansen and I’ll be doing so again for this event. Rodriguez has shown on multiple occasions now her ability to get through adversity in a fight and turn things around down the stretch (assuming she even needs to and hasn’t already gotten the job done early). Like most fighters making their UFC debut, Rodriguez looked a little out of place early in her fight against Hansen. However, once she settled in and opened up her game, the fight quickly swung in her favor. Hughes is a pretty solid fighter overall, but I think she’s been a little overrated off her past two wins, and despite making improvements to her own game, will find herself in trouble as this fight progresses. I think Rodriguez’ power will be enough down the stretch to pick up the decision or possibly even learn the late stoppage via KO.

Joanderson Brito – Brito finds himself back on this card after his original opponent was forced to drop out with a broken hand recently. Lucas Anderson accepted this one on extremely short notice, and while he seems to be a pretty good fighter in his own right based off the limited research I did on him, the short notice alone so be enough for Brito to comfortably pick up another win here. Considering the power that Brito packs in his shots, as well as his finishing ability via submission, I think there’s a pretty good chance Brito can put this one away inside the distance.

Nick Maximov – I’m not a huge fan of either fighter in this one, but I have to give the slight lean towards Maximov to pick up the win here. Both are primarily grapplers who look like to rack up takedowns and bully their opponents on the mat. However, I feel like Maximov is the better overall fighter between the two, despite suffering his first lose in pretty shocking fashion in his last fight. He will have a fairly sizeable 3″ advantage in both height and reach that should make a difference here, particularly if it comes to striking. I think Maximov will be looking to get the taste of defeat out of his mouth from his last fight and pressure hard in this one. Either Maximov wins with a comfortable decision, or potentially gets out of there earlier via submission. I’ll lean with the decision for the pick.

Victor Henry – There’s quite a bit of hype around Henry heading into this event and I feel like there’s solid reasoning behind it. He displayed a ridiculous array of striking and volume against Barcelos and will be facing an opponent here in Assuncao that has dropped 4 of his last 5 fights with three of them ending via stoppage. Assuncao has had an amazing career, but he’s 40 years old now and is four years removed from his most recent victory in the octagon. I feel like Henry will be able to push the pace in this one and eventually wear down Assuncao and put him away. It’s hard to narrow down the method or round here personally, but I love Henry inside the distance at plus money.

Mana Martinez – Don’t exactly love either fighter in this one overall, but I feel like Martinez should be able to get this one done of a guy that’s currently in his second stint with the promotion and struggling to find wins there for a second time as well. Not to mention the fact that Davis will be returning from knee surgery, which doesn’t always bode well in the first fight back. I don’t love Martinez here, but I do feel like he should be able to get the job done and put this one away more than likely. I’ll take Martinez by KO as the pick, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see this one makes it to the judges’ cards either.

Alonzo Menifield – If this one somehow miraculously makes it beyond the halfway point of the fight, then this pick might be in trouble. But I feel pretty comfortable that Menifield can either put this one away early or rack up enough favor and points with the judges to still squeeze out a tight decision over Cirkunov. There’s definitely a route for Cirkunov to pick the win if he can somehow ground Menifield and keep him there, however, I don’t see that happening. And Menifield should have a pretty comfortable advantage on the feet, particularly with the power he possesses in his punches. I like Menifield to get this done by knockout in the first half of the fight. I also love the value on the U1.5 rounds considering the finishing ability both of these guys possess.

Dusko Todorovic – This one is basically a coin flip on who you think can land the hardest, earliest shot and while I would normally take the underdog in these situations, I feel like Todorovic is the more likely of these two to get the job done. Wright has never been the distance in a fight and hasn’t even made it past the midway point so far in his career. If by some miracle this one doesn’t end in the first 7:30 of this fight, I’m not sure he has the cardio to cover the ensuing 2:30 to even make it to the third round. He’s also incredibly hittable and seems to point his chin to the ceiling as his preferred method of defense when he’s involved in striking exchanges. I’ll take Todorovic in this spot to find the mark and get the job done via first round knockout.

Askar Askarov – Despite coming of the first loss of his career in his most recent fight against Kai Kara France, I feel pretty comfortable taking Askarov to bounce back in this one. Royval is a solid fighter in his own right who is extremely live at any moment to snatch a submission. However, Askarov is pretty clearly the more dominant grappler of the two and should be able to remain safe as he looks for takedowns throughout the fight. All of Askarov’s wins in the UFC have come via decision, and while I wouldn’t be surprised if that ends up being the case here, I actually expect Askarov to push a little harder than usual to find a stoppage and get this one done inside the distance at plus money.

Cub Swanson – There aren’t many underdogs on this card that I’ve felt comfortable enough to take a stab on, but I feel like Swanson has some high upside to pull an upset in this fight. Martinez is an excellent fighter with a pretty high ceiling; however, he’s also shown to have some holes in his game that can still be exploited. Swanson will be dropping down in weight, and assuming he doesn’t have any major issues making the cut at 38 years old, I think that could play a big role in this one. Martinez has shown a tendency to get caught and rocked in the past, and that could prove to be a fight-ending mistake here if Swanson catches him clean. While I’m not comfortable narrowing down a method, I do think Swanson has the potential to steal this one and pick up the win in his 135 lb debut.

Alexa Grasso – I’ve flipped back and forth on this one throughout the week, but I think I’m going to trust that Grasso can find a way to survive any potential early adversity in this one and extend it long enough to see Araujo start to lose steam and gas out. Neither of these women have championship round experience, however, Araujo has shown a somewhat question gas tank late in her three round fights. While Araujo could find some early success in the grappling, I’m not confident it will be enough to get the fight finished. And without a finish in the first few rounds, I feel like this one pretty comfortably starts to swing towards the favor of Grasso to either pick up the decision or even find a late stoppage if Araujo’s cardio completely starts to fade. The pick is Grasso for this one and I might take a look at the Grasso by R4/R5/Dec prop.

Overall Favorite Picks for UFC Vegas 62: Tatsuro Taira, Piera Rodriguez, Victor Henry, and Askar Askarov

You’ll probably notice the lack of underdogs amongst my picks for this event and normally that would be a red flag for me as I like to have at least 2-3 comfortable underdog spots when I finalize my picks. However, there just aren’t that many on this card that I found myself taking when all of the smoke settled on my research. Other than Swanson, I feel like Malkoun and Araujo are probably the most likely to find wins among the underdogs on this card. However, I still couldn’t talk myself into picking either one of them in the end.

For my full betting card for UFC Vegas 62, be sure to check back on OddSmokerMMA tomorrow. You can also check out my first UFC Vegas 62 bet that I placed or my two-card +2600 parlay that begins this weekend and carries over into UFC 280.

If you would like to see what I have already placed for the event, feel free to check out my BetMMA profile in the meantime.

Also make sure you check out the OddSmokerMMA Early Previews for UFC 280 all the way through UFC 285 in March 2023!

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