We have a stacked day of fights coming our way, with UFC Mexico and PFL vs Bellator both taking place later today. UFC Mexico features 13 fights and will be headlined by a pair of rematches. In the main event, Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval will face off in a matchup between flyweight contenders. Meanwhile, the co-main event will feature Yair Rodriguez facing the returning Brian Ortega, who hasn’t fought since their original matchup. Friendly reminder to everyone betting today that there’s a very good chance we’ll see the altitude of Mexico City play a pivotal role in some matchups, particularly for the fighters who aren’t from the region and the ones who didn’t arrive early to prepare their bodies for it.

My favorite picks on this card are Brandon Moreno, Yair Rodriguez, Daniel Zellhuber and Raul Rosas Jr. I expect Moreno to be slightly better than Royval pretty much everywhere in their matchup and he should be able to pull away in this one down the stretch for a late stoppage or decision win. Rodriguez vs Ortega will be a very fun matchup, but it’s hard to see Ortega being able to get the win here without it coming via submission. I think Rodriguez will be the better striker on the feet and should be able to stay safe and avoid the submission threat of Ortega early to get this one done via decision. Zellhuber should be able to use his size and length to control the distance against Francisco Prada, but he’ll need to stay upright as much as possible. I think he’ll be able to find a late KO/TKO stoppage here or pick up the win via decision. Ricky Turcios is a solid test for Raul Rosas Jr, but I expect Rosas Jr to do what he does best and take this one to the ground early and often. I think he’ll be able to find a submission in the first half of this one, but his cardio could be an issue down the stretch if this fight gets extended out.

For the betting this weekend, I’m going pretty lightly overall. Between the unknowns with the altitude and how it will affect fighters and some pretty wide money lines on some matchups, there weren’t too many spots that felt like they were worth targeting. I also decided to play a couple of lines from the PFL vs Bellator card for this week. The parlays that I’m taking a stab at today are: Yoel Romero ML + Brandon Moreno to Win Ov1.5 rounds (+207 for .5 units) and Renan Ferreira ML + Daniel Lacerda ML + Yair Rodriguez ML (+1185 for .5 units). These are the props I decided to play: Rosas Jy by Submission (+270 for .5 units), Zellhuber by R2/3 KO/TKO (+600 for .25 units), Yazmin Jauregui by R2/3 KO (+500 for .25 units), Lacerda in R1/2 (+600 for .25 units) and Lacerda by R1 KO/TKO (+1300 for .25 units). That’s a total of seven tracked plays for 2.5 units out. I also have an untracked 5-leg parlay out that is +3202 for .25 units that consists of Lacerda R1/2 + Yair Rodriguez ML + Muhammad Mokaev ML (next weekend) + Petr Yan ML (UFC 299) + Sean O’Malley ML (UFC 299). That play would run across the next two weeks assuming it progresses beyond today. Best of luck to everyone gambling today and hope everybody enjoys the fights!

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