UFC 282: Picks & Predictions for Full Card

As Jon Anik would like to say, we are only two sleeps away from UFC 282 this weekend in Las Vegas and it should be a pretty exciting card overall despite a handful of changes to the lineup.

Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev will be featured in the main event to determine a new UFC Light Heavyweight champion after Jiri Prochazka vacated the title due to injury and there are a handful of other exciting matchups sprinkled throughout the card as well.

Let’s jump right in with the OddSmokerMMA UFC 282 Picks & Predictions for this weekend’s event:

UFC 282 Full Fight Card

Cameron Saiiman – Both of these fighters are making their UFC debuts with perfect 6-0 records coming into the fight. Steven Koslow has won all six of his pro fights by first round submission, but he is taking this fight on extremely short notice, so his gas tank could be a real issue if this fight goes past the five-minute mark. Neither fighter has faced very good competition so far, which makes it even harder to get a clear read here. I’ll take Saiiman to get the job done and escape some early adversity and danger from Koslow before eventually putting him out via KO/TKO as the fight wears on.

Vinicius Salvador – This should be a very exciting fight for however long it may last, as these two fighters have combined to see the scorecards just once in 33 total fights (a Salvador decision loss). Daniel Da Silva has a 100% finish rate in his wins but also has shown a pretty low fight IQ so far while going 0-3 in the UFC. Da Silva also absorbs a ridiculous 10+ strikes per minute in his UFC fights and he takes two strikes for every one that he lands. Salvador has stopped all 14 of his professional wins with 13 of them coming via knockout, and I think he adds to those numbers this weekend. Da Silva might have a bit of early success, but Salvador should be able to get him out of there before the midway point of this fight.

Erik Silva – Silva will be the third DWCS alum making their debut on this card (joining Saiiman and Salvador) and enters this one on an eight-fight winning streak. TJ Brown will have the advantage of having some UFC experience under his belt, but he has looked average at best during that time in my opinion. Silva has been extremely dangerous in his fights as of late, with the last six ending via finishes in the first round. While Brown has been stopped in six of his nine losses, I think there’s a decent chance that this one will end up making it to the scorecards where Silva should pick up a fairly comfortable decision win.

Billy Quarantillo – This fight is one that might be best to avoid betting until after weigh-ins have been completed, as Alex Hernandez will be dropping down in weight for this fight after losing two of his previous three at lightweight. Quarantillo is coming off a twelve-month layoff after also dropping two of his previous three. Both of these fighters are pretty solid, but I’m not sure I trust Hernandez in this spot dropping down in weight here. I expect the first round to be pretty competitive before Quarantillo eventually gets Hernandez out of this one in the latter rounds.

Chris Curtis – This should be a fun matchup between two middleweights who love to throw bombs with a combined 26 knockouts on their records. Joaquin Buckley is probably the more well-rounded fighter of these two, but Curtis has shown pretty immaculate takedown defense in the UFC, and I think this one likely stays on the feet the entire fight. Curtis has more volume in the striking, but he also absorbs more strikes than Buckley, which will make things interesting. In a fight that I expect to stay standing, I’ll trust the guy who has historically had the better chin. I think Curtis will land the better shots and do more damage on his way to a decision or late stoppage victory in this one.

Edmen Shahbazyan – There’s no way to sugarcoat the fact that Shahbazyan looked pretty terrible in his last three fights as he enters this one against Dalcha Lungiambula. Shahbazyan acknowledged as much himself, as he decided to switch gyms after the latest loss after feeling a change was needed. Luckily for him, the UFC gave him an opponent who has also largely struggled of late, as Lungiambula has dropped four of his previous five fights. Shahbazyan is 10 years younger in this matchup and will have a six-inch height advantage. Shahbazyan should also benefit from the change in camps, and I think he will bounce back to into the win column here with a KO/TKO stoppage sometime in the first two rounds.

Raul Rosas Jr – The final DWCS alum making their debut on this card, Rosas Jr will also be setting a record as the youngest fighter to debut in promotion history when he takes on Jay Perrin. Rosas Jr is still very early in his career, but he has already shown to be an extremely dangerous fighter with a potentially high ceiling. Perrin is a solid fighter who is very durable in his career, but also has shown to consistently lose whenever he’s on a big stage (0-5 in Bellator, DWCS, and UFC combined). I think Rosas Jr was given a favorable matchup to get his feet wet in the company, and I expect him to take advantage by picking up a comfortable decision or late submission.

Jay Perrin’s comments on Raul Rosas Jr

Jairzinho Rozenstruik – This should be a fun matchup between two heavyweights that have zero interest in takedowns and are purely looking to turn out their opposition’s lights. Both Rozenstruik and Chris Daukaus enter this fight off rough skids that included knockout losses in their most recent fights, but they’ve both been losing to high-level competition. Both fighters have won 11 out of 12 victories in their careers via KO/TKO, but Daukaus has also been stopped in all five of his career losses. I think both of these guys will land some power shots early, but I expect Rozenstruik to find success landing the harder shots and put away Daukaus late in the first round or early in the second.

Bryce Mitchell – This is likely to be one of the most exciting matchups on the entire card and I would be surprised if one or both fighters don’t end up with bonuses here. Both Mitchell and Ilia Topuria enter this fight undefeated and could find themselves looking at a potential featherweight title shot in the not-so-distant future with a win. Topuria has stopped 11 of his 12 career wins and has proven to be extremely dangerous pretty much everywhere inside the cage. Mitchell has faced the tougher competition so far in the UFC, however, and really impressed me in his last fight with Edson Barbosa. Both fighters are extremely durable, and I think this one likely makes it the full fifteen minutes. Although I expect both fighters to have success throughout the fight, I think Mitchell will be the one who gets this one done on the scorecards.

Dricus Du Plessis – This was one of the tougher fights for me to pick on the entire card just for the simple fact it is almost impossible to know how Darren Till will look on Saturday night. Till has largely struggled in recent years inside and outside the octagon with multiple losses, cancellations, and injuries littered everywhere. While he might have finally put all that in the rearview mirror, it’s impossible for me to trust that against Dricus Du Plessis. Coming off the first decision of his career, Du Plessis has stopped 15 out of 16 of his career victories and is well-rounded enough to get Till out of this one via either KO/TKO or submission unless Till can somehow recapture his former form from earlier in his career.

Alex Morono – This is an extremely late addition to the card, as Morono steps in to replace Robbie Lawler, who was forced out of his fight with Santiago Ponzinibbio due to injury. I loved Ponzinibbio in his original matchup against Lawler, but even with the short notice situation involved, Morono is going to be a much tougher opponent. Morono has won four straight fights and has looked pretty good in the process, while Ponzinibbio tries to bounce back after dropping three of his previous five fights. I think there’s a good chance this one ends up making it to a decision, and I think Morono has a pretty decent chance of getting his hand raised in this matchup.

Paddy Pimblett celebrating a win

Paddy Pimblett – Paddy the Baddy is probably my favorite pick on this entire lineup despite the fact he’s taking on a very solid opponent in Jared Gordon. Gordon is 19-5 in his career and has won four of his previous five fights, but he has been stopped in all five of his losses with four coming via KO/TKO. That’s not a great indicator against someone like Pimblett, who is capable of stopping a fight from pretty much anywhere. Pimblett will have a sizeable five-inch reach advantage in this fight, and I think he will be able to connect and drop Gordon at some point in this fight before putting away via ground-and-pound or submission.

Magomed Ankalaev – While it’s obviously disappointing that the original main event of Jiri Prochazka and Glover Texeira fell apart, we still have a pretty solid replacement with Ankalaev taking on Jan Blachowicz to determine a new champion. Blachowicz is one of the most dangerous strikers in the division and is always live to finish a fight with his famous “Polish Power”. However, Ankalaev has won nine straight fights and has already shown he is more than capable of hanging with dangerous opponents for a full 25 minutes. While Ankalaev has been known to “play it safe” sometimes in his fights and work towards comfortable decisions, I wouldn’t be surprised if he tries to make a statement here in the biggest spot of his career and try to win the title via KO/TKO over the former champion. Ankalaev is nine years younger than Blachowicz and should be able to turn up the volume and wear him down as this fight goes on to become the new UFC Light Heavyweight champion.

Check back tomorrow for the complete OddSmokerMMA UFC 282 Beting Card for this weekend and be sure to check out our first two bets for the event that we already have out now while you wait!

Which fight are you looking forward to the most this weekend in Las Vegas at UFC 282? Who do you think will emerge from the event with some extra bonus money? Let us know in the comments section!

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One response to “UFC 282: Picks & Predictions for Full Card”

  1. […] If you want a more detailed breakdown of each fight to get a better idea of why I like each of these bets, be sure to check out our OddSmokerMMA UFC 282 Picks & Predictions. […]


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