With sportsbooks starting to open up more of their prop betting markets ahead of UFC 281 this weekend, I decided it was the perfect time to get an early jump on betting some of these odds before they start to receive a lot of action and begin to move too much.
I already shared the first two early bets for UFC 281 if you want more information on those, but with the prop markets finally opening up, I have added four more plays to the card over the past 24 hours.
The new additions include three two-leg parlays and one prop bet.
Here is the OddSmokerMMA UFC 281 Early Betting Card with some brief thoughts included for each play down below:
The first new bet that I placed for this event is a two-leg parlay: Claudio Puelles ML and the Under 4.5 rounds for Zhang Weili vs Carla Esparza at +390 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Hooker is definitely live for an early knockout in this fight. However, I think Puelles will be able to avoid the danger here long enough to get this one to the ground and probably get the submission.
I also like the potential for the co-main event to end inside the distance and loved the value on the Under 4.5 rounds being at plus money on FanDuel (+106).
The second play that I added is another two-leg parlay: Israel Adesanya ML paired with Dominick Reyes in R1/2 at +205 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
I think Reyes bounces back and puts a halt to the brutal three-fight stretch he’s returning from in this fight and could see him wanting to make a statement by putting away Ryan Spann early.
While the main event is probably going to be a close fight early, I have to favor Adesanya down the stretch and think he’s by far the more likely to win a decision if himself or Alex Pereira don’t find a knockout first over the five rounds.
The third new bet for UFC 281 this weekend is the final two-leg parlay addition and consists of two double chance plays that fit with our previous bets: Weili by KO/Sub and Adesanya by KO/Dec at +230 odds on DraftKings.
The final new addition to the card is the first straight prop bet of the card and one I really like: Dustin Poirier to win by KO in round two or three at +440 odds available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Michael Chandler has very publicly stated that he wants to put on entertaining fights and chase bonuses at this point in his career and recognizes his time chasing the title is likely at an end, which I absolutely love to see him acknowledge.
The problem for him here using that thought process is that Poirier has been fairly durable throughout much of his career, and outside of his recent championship fights, he has been pretty solid lately.
I think these two will exchange heavy and pretty often, and unless Chandler decides to focus heavy with his grappling, I like Poirier to eventually turn out the lights during one of the striking exchanges the longer this fight goes.
I’m still waiting for more sportsbooks to fully open up their prop betting markets for the early portion of the card, so there are still a few more bets that I will definitely be adding to the slate.
Be sure to check OddSmokerMMA tomorrow for our full UFC 281 Picks & Predictions post, and we will post our UFC 281 Full Betting Card on Friday once weigh-ins have been completed!
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