After a couple of events on the road to end March, it’s back to the META Apex this weekend for UFC Vegas 115.

The card features 13 matchups and will be headlined by American Top Team teammates Renato Moicano and Chris Duncan in a lightweight main event.

Weigh-ins for the event were certainly eventful, with multiple small misses and other notes.

Rafael Estevam and Darrius Flowers each missed weight by half a pound for their respective matchups, with Flowers looking particularly rough and possibly having a small limp in his step.

They will be fined 20% of their fight purses and their bouts will proceed as scheduled.

Also worth noting, Ethyn Ewing appeared to have some bruising or damage under his left eye.

UFC Vegas 115 Picks & Predictions

My favorite picks this weekend are Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev, Tommy McMillen, Azamat Bekoev and Alessandro Costa.

My favorite potential betting upsets for this one are Estevam and Hailey Cowan.

Yakhyaev is 8-0 in his career and burst onto the scene last fall with dominant wins on DWCS and in his UFC debut, both ending in less than a minute.

He’s getting another great spot for a potential highlight here against Brendson Ribeiro, who is 2-4 in the UFC and stopped in 3 of the losses.

I expect Yakhyaev to come out throwing heavy, land big pretty early and likely finish this one up on the ground.

McMillen is 9-0 and making his UFC debut after a back-and-forth war on DWCS earned him a contract.

The touted featherweight prospect is out of Sean O’Malley’s camp, and the UFC gave him a winnable spot in his debut against Manolo Zecchini.

While McMillen still has some holes to address long-term, I think he’ll be able to do enough to get a win here over Zecchini, who is returning from a two-and-a-half-year layoff.

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Bekoev is looking to bounce back from a rough outing in his last one against Yousri Belgaroui and gets a great opportunity to shine here against Tresean Gore.

Gore has a 2-4 record in the UFC, and both of the fighters he has defeated are no longer part of the roster.

I expect Bekoev to land the bigger strikes, avoid getting controlled and eventually land a big enough shot to get Gore out.

Costa is another fighter getting a solid spot to get back into the win column this weekend against Stewart Nicoll.

I think Costa will be able to largely dictate where this fight goes, have more success in the striking exchanges and should be able to get this one done down the stretch or on the cards.

UFC Vegas 115 Betting Card

For the UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan betting card, I’m keeping things pretty light with three prop bets and a pair of three-leg parlays.

The prop bets are Estevam by Decision (+225 for .5 units), Yakhyaev by Submission in R1 (+240 for .5 units) and Chris Duncan by Submission or Decision Double Chance (+240 for .5 units).

The parlays are Melissa Gatto +3.5 Point Spread + Yakhyaev to Win in R1 + Jandiroba +3.5 Alt Point Spread (+149 for .5 units) and Gatto +3.5 Point Spread + Bekoev -3.5 Point Spread + Jandiroba +3.5 Alt Point Spread (+147 for .5 units).

While Ewing looked great in his debut picking up a massive upset over Malcolm Wellmaker, I think he’ll have issues with defending the takedowns and pressure from Estevam.

Yakhyaev has found six of his seven stoppage wins by submission and/or on the ground, so I’m taking the shot on him to get this one done by club and sub in the early minutes.

The main event is a tough one to pick, but I think Duncan can survive early and wear down Moicano as the fight continues for a sub in the latter rounds or decision win.

I expect all three of the women’s fights on this card to be close, so decided to take some shots on point spreads mixed with a couple of confident picks.

That’s a total of five bets for 2.5 units on the tracked bets this weekend.

UFC Vegas 115 Wrap-Up

Much like UFC Seattle last weekend, this is another really tough card for the picks and bets on paper with some solid matchmaking and/or tough betting lines on wide favorites, so we’ll see how things play out.

We came out ahead on the bets last weekend despite a rough night for the picks, hopefully we can continue that trend here with a similarly tough card.

Overall, while this card has caught a ton of flak in the community for a lack of household names, I expect it to be a pretty exciting and violent night of action in Las Vegas with a few highlight reel finishes.

Check back next weekend for UFC 327, which has a stacked lineup featuring a pair of title fights at the top.

Also, we’ll be doing media day for PFL Chicago this week, so let us know if you have any questions you’d like us to ask.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

UFC Vegas 115 Quick Picks

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