UFC Mexico: Moreno vs Kavanagh – Picks, Predictions, Betting Card & More

It’s Fight Day for UFC Mexico! We have a loaded UFC Fight Night event with 13 fights featuring tons of debuts and stacked with fighters from the region, including Brandon Moreno headlining against Lone’er Kavanagh.

All 26 fighters successfully made weight for the event and there was only one change made to the lineup during fight week with Regina Tarin set to make her debut on short notice.

My favorite picks for UFC Mexico are Francis Marshall, Daniel Zellhuber, Ryan Gandra and Santiago Luna. My favorite potential betting upset is Tarin.

Marshall is getting a decent step back in competition here against Erik Silva and it should be a matchup he shines in. Silva is returning from a lengthy injury layoff, while Marshall looks to bounce back from a questionable split decision loss.

Marshall should be better anywhere this goes, particularly on the ground, and I think he’ll be able to get Silva out down the stretch with a submission or pick up a pretty clear decision win.

Zellhuber is coming off a disappointing outing against Michael Johnson and needs to make a statement in this fight with King Green. I expect Zellhuber to be able to use his length and snipe Green with a big shot to find a finish in this one.

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Gandra is making his UFC debut and getting a great opportunity to make a statement against Jose Medina, who is 0-3 in the UFC and hasn’t looked good at all. Gandra should be able to find a big shot at some point for a KO/TKO win.

Luna has heavy hands and is getting an extremely hittable opponent here with Angel Pacheco, who has absorbed 344 strikes in his past two outings. Luna should cruise in this one and likely lands a big enough shot for a stoppage.

For the UFC Mexico bets this weekend, I have a few props and a couple of parlays open but didn’t want to go too heavy with so many chalked up lines and massive favorites.

The prop bets for this one are Tarin by Decision (+300 for .25 units), Martinez by KO/TKO (+650 for .25 units) and Moreno by Submission (+350 for .25 units).

The UFC Mexico parlays are Pinas/Schultz U1.5 Rounds + Marshall/Silva Ov1.5 Rounds + Zellhuber to Win Inside the Distance + Martinez ML (+619 for .25 units) and Pinas/KO/U599.5 Seconds SGP + Chairez -3.5 Alt Spread + Zullhuber -3.5 Alt Spread (+323 for .5 units). That’s a total of five tracked bets for 1.5 units.

Normally not a fan of taking short notice fighters, but Tarin was already preparing to compete this week and should be able to do enough to get this one on the cards at home.

Chito has been one of the most durable fighters in the bantamweight division, but everyone gets caught eventually. I think Martinez can potentially crack him in this one if he pressures early.

Moreno didn’t look great in his last fight against Tatsuro Taira, but I think this is a more favorable spot for him if he still has anything left in the tank. I think he can wear out Kavanagh down the stretch at altitude and likely find a stop.

Last weekend we had a decent card for UFC Houston, but the bets came up a tad short and finished down .25 units. Reminder we finally set up the OddSmokerMMA UFC Betting Tracker also, so be sure to check that out for results.

Next weekend we have UFC 326 featuring a rematch between Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira for the BMF title, so be sure to check back for picks/bets for that one.

Overall, this should be a pretty exciting lineup that could see a lot of highlight reel stoppages. Let us know your favorite picks and bets in the comments. As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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