It’s Fight Day for UFC Houston and we have a loaded lineup headed our way from the Lone Star State! The card features 14 matchups and will be headlined by a middleweight showdown between Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez.

After a second attempt on the scales by Phil Rowe, all 28 fighters on the card successfully made weight for the event.

My favorite picks for this weekend are Yadier Del Valle, Carli Judice, Alden Coria and Jacobe Smith. My favorite potential betting upsets are Sean Strickland and Phil Rowe.

Del Valle is 10-0 and has won both of his UFC fights via first round submission. With Leavitt dropping down in weight, I think Del Valle will rely more on his striking here to get this one on the cards or with a late stoppage.

Judice enters her matchup with Juliana Miller riding a two-fight streak with both wins coming via KO/TKO. I expect Carli to have a significant advantage in the striking and she should get the win with a stoppage down the stretch or decision.

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Coria impressed in his UFC debut with a late stoppage win over Alessandro Costa and gets another solid opportunity to build on that here. I think Coria will mix up his grappling and striking to get this one done on the cards.

Smith and Harrell have Fight of the Night potential in a clash between 11-0 fighters, but I like Smith to take advantage of being on a full camp to outwork Harrell down the stretch and take rounds for a decision win.

For the tracked bets this weekend, I ran a few straight plays and one parlay. The straights are Strickland ML (+250 for .5 units), Del Valle by Decision (+330 for .5 units) and Smith by Dec (+225 for .5 units).

The parlay is Del Valle to Win and Ov 1.5 Rounds + Coria to Win and Ov 1.5 Rounds + Delija/Spivac U2.5 Alternate Rounds (+305 for .5 units).

The main event should be competitive, but if Strickland can avoid getting grounded for long stretches, he should be able to match the cardio of Fluffy, have a slight advantage in the striking and take rounds for a decision.

That’s a total of four bets for 2 units on the tracked plays for today. Also threw an untracked dart on Geoff Neal for the Fastest Finish of the Night (+800 for .25 units).

In a move that was way overdue, I finally put together a public spreadsheet for OddSmokerMMA UFC Bet Tracking and have already input the data for 2024, 2025 and this year.

These are strictly records for the tracked plays, not any untracked, live bets and/or parlays with legs that I had open heading into events.

I’ll be updating it with each card from here on out and will try to get 2022/2023 data added soon for a more complete picture and overview since I launched the website for OddSmokerMMA.

Huge thank you to everyone who showed love for Julius Walker last weekend at UFC Vegas 113 and grabbed a shirt from our merch collaboration with him!

He still has some available for anyone who was interested, so reach out to him on his Instagram for order details.

Overall, I expect this one to be a pretty exciting card that could see a lot of finishes spread throughout. Check back next weekend for UFC Mexico to finish out the month, followed by UFC 326 to kick off March.

As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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