It’s Fight Day for UFC 324 and the lengthy layoff between UFC events is finally over!

We have a fun lineup set to kick things off for the UFC on Paramount+ era headlined by Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett for the interim UFC Lightweight title with a total of 12 fights on the card.

Deiveson Figuieredo and Alex Perez both missed weight for their respective matchups and will be fined 25% of their fight purses as a result.

There was also a scary incident with Cameron Smotherman collapsing on stage, which resulted in his matchup with Ricky Turcios being scratched. Smotherman has since said he is okay and getting more tests done.

UFC 324 Picks

My favorite picks for this weekend are Umar Nurmagomedov, Sean O’Malley, Ateba Gautier and Josh Hokit. Not many underdogs I’m loving on this one, Alexander Hernandez is my favorite to pull an “upset” since the line flipped.

Nurmagomedov is coming off a competitive win over Mario Bautista in his last fight and getting a great opportunity to make a statement in this one against the former two-time UFC Flyweight champ. Figgy didn’t look great on the scales, is 1-2 in his last three and also had a major car accident since his last fight.

Umar should be able to outwork him down the stretch in this one and think there’s a good chance he can put him away for a stoppage.

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Sean O’Malley is staring down a must-win fight if he wants to stay in the conversation for the UFC Bantamweight title, and while he has a tough opponent, I love the matchup for him.

Yadong is a solid striker who can mix it up, but his takedowns and wrestling aren’t on par with Merab Dvalishvili, who gave Sean fits. O’Malley should be able to keep this mostly on the feet and think he’ll be live for a knockout in this one.

Gautier is one of the most touted prospects in the promotion at the moment, and while I think they gave him a fair test in this one against the usually durable Andrey Pulyaev, I think he’ll rise to the occasion. Ateba has nasty power in his striking and has ended all three of his UFC fights via first round KO.

Pulyaev might be able to drag this one out a bit, but I expect Gautier to have the bigger moments and eventually find a knockout or decision.

Hokit will look to continue his slow climb through the heavyweight ranks and gets a good matchup here to keep going. Freeman is an excellent wrestler but looked pretty mediocre in his debut against an opponent who was promptly cut.

Hokit should be the better striker and able to hold his own in the wrestling department and I think he’ll be the one taking rounds with damage and aggressiveness. I expect Hokit to get this one on the cards or a late stoppage.

UFC 324 Bets

For the betting card this weekend, I have a few prop bets and a couple of parlays. The prop bets are O’Malley by KO/TKO (+325 for .5 units), Nurmagomedov by Submission (+175 for .5 units), Hokit by Decision (+275 for .5 units) and Charles Johnson to Win Inside the Distance (+200 for .5 units).

The parlays are Hokit to Win and Over 1.5 Rounds + O’Malley ML + Pimblett to Win Inside the Distance (+415 for.5 units) and Nurmagomedov to Win Inside the Distance + Cortes Acosta ML + O’Malley ML + Pimblett ML (+515 for .5 units).

That’s a total of six tracked bets for 3 units. Dana White and others in the promotion have been very clear recently they’re looking for entertaining fights and fighters who push for finishes, and I think we’ll see a lot of them respond tonight chasing statement wins on the Paramount+ debut.

In the main event, I really like the matchup stylistically for Pimblett and think he’s shown clear improvements in recent outings. Gaethje obviously has something going on with his neck as he kept it bandaged and covered all week during Fight Week media and events, so we’ll see if that has any effects or not on the fight.

Either way, I expect Paddy to get this one done with a stoppage win.

New OddSmokerMMA Merch Collabs

Before the break, we mentioned having an upcoming merch collaboration with Julius Walker ahead of his fight at UFC Vegas 113 on February 7th, and you can DM him on his social media accounts now to order!

He has two shirt designs available at $25 each plus $10 shipping (if necessary), so reach out and grab one now!

Jose Henrique Souza is also rocking with one of our designs for merch ahead of his UFC debut, which was set on the same card but appears to have been pushed, so reach out to him for more information on those if you want to pick one up!

Huge thank you to everyone who has helped us make these kinds of collaborations possible and stay tuned for more information in the near future on a couple more big ones that are currently in the works!

You can check out our Merch page for past collaborations and other designs available also.

Quick Roundup & Full UFC 324 Picks

Overall, extremely hyped for this card after the lengthy layoff between events and there should be a lot of fun fights.

Next weekend we get another numbered event with UFC 325 kicking off in Sydney, Australia followed by UFC Vegas 113 on February 7th from the Meta APEX. The current schedule features a lot of really fun cards coming up to start the year!

We ended 2025 on an excellent run, finishing in the green on bets for the final six events including a full card sweep and #1 overall finish on Tapology for UFC Vegas 112, so hopefully we can pick up where we left off with a strong start to 2026.

Let us know in the comments which fights you’re most excited to watch, who your favorite picks are and what bets you’re liking for tonight! As usual, we hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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