It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Qatar and we have an action-packed lineup on the way from the Middle East. The card features 14 matchups and will be headlined by a lightweight clash between Arman Tsarukyan and Dan Hooker that carries potential title implications with UFC Lightweight champ Ilia Topuria, who is also at the event cornering his brother.
All 28 fighters successfully made weight for the event, although we had a bit of a hiccup at the ceremonial weigh-in with Tsarukyan throwing a headbutt as he and Hooker faced off. Not the brightest move for someone who had to pull out of a championship opportunity on weigh-in day earlier this year.
My favorite picks for this weekend are Tsarukyan, AbdulRakhman Yakhyaev, Volkan Oezdemir and Ian Machado Garry. My favorite potential betting upsets are Jack Hermansson and Marek Bujlo.
Despite the less than genius level move of throwing the headbutt, Tsarukyan is getting a relatively easy opportunity to make a statement and secure himself another shot at the title. Arman hasn’t competed in the UFC since last April, but he has kept busy grappling this year in the meantime.
Hooker is coming back from multiple surgeries and unless he can find an early knockout, Arman should get this one done with his wrestling for a finish by submission or ground and pound.
Yakhyaev is making his UFC debut but will be making it in a favorable matchup against Raffael Cerqueira, who is 0-3 so far in his UFC run. Yakhyaev should be able to take this one to the ground and have his choice of how to finish. I think he’ll get it done by submission in less than a round and a half.
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Oezdemir is getting a fun matchup against Alonzo Menifield and should get back into the win column here. Oezdemir should be able to control the range and eventually land something big for the KO/TKO win.
Garry is getting a huge opportunity against Belal Muhammad and has a chance to solidify himself in a seemingly loaded title picture at welterweight. Garry should be able to move and land some big shots on Muhammad, who took a huge amount of punishment and damage in his loss to JDM back in May.
Belal is likely to pressure and take the fight to Ian and I think Garry can catch him off a counter for a KO/TKO or should be able to pick up the win on the cards landing the bigger shots and creating more damage.
For the betting card this weekend, I have a few props and one parlay on the tracked bets. The props are Yakhyaev by Submission (+200 for .5 units), Garry by KO/TKO (+500 for .25 units) and Tsarukyan by Submission (+330 for .5 units).
The parlay is Yakhyaev to Win and Under 1.5 Rounds + Oezdemir by KO/TKO + Tsarukyan to Win Inside the Distance (+397 for .5 units). That’s a total of four tracked bets for 1.75 units.
As I mentioned in the UFC 322 Picks & Predictions last week, I also have some futures bets open that need Tsarukyan ML to progress them to the final leg (Jonathan Taylor NFL MVP). Be sure to check our socials before and during the fights for any late additions on untracked plays.
We’ve had some really great luck the past few events on the bets, so hopefully we can keep that energy going to close out the month. With no event next weekend, there are only two UFC cards left in 2025.
With the break coming up after UFC 323 and UFC Vegas 112 next month, hopefully we’ll start seeing a lot of fight announcements for next year dropping soon with the new Paramount+ deal kicking off in January.
Overall, this should be a really fun card featuring several debuts and a lot of fun fights. Be sure to remember there’s an early start time for this one with the prelims kicking off at 10AM ET.
Best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!
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