It’s almost time for UFC Vegas 111 and we’ve got another pretty fun card on the way from the Apex. Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown will both be headlining their first UFC event when they meet in a ranked welterweight matchup.
Only one fighter missed weight with Ismael Bonfim coming in a ridiculously heavy 5 pounds over the lightweight limit. He’s being fined 25% and his matchup with Chris Padilla is scheduled to proceed.
My favorite picks for UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown are Josh Hokit, Joseph Morales and Jacquline Cavalcanti. My favorite potential betting upset is Raoni Barcelos.
Hokit makes his debut off being signed from DWCS and gets fellow debutante Max Gimenis in this one. Not particularly high on either of these guys in the long run, but Hokit should be the more dangerous striker. Gimenis comes from a BJJ background, but he might not even be better on the ground here. I expect Hokit to get this one done with a finish.
Morales starts his second run in the UFC after winning a contract on TUF and he’s getting a great matchup against Matt Schnell. Morales has shown a lot of improvements since his first run with the promotion, while Schnell has flirted back and forth with retirement more than once. Morales should be hungrier here and think he’ll get the win.
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Cavalcanti has looked pretty sharp so far with the promotion putting together a 4-0 run heading into this matchup with Mayra Bueno Silva. Cavalcanti is getting a decent step up here with the former title challenger, but MBS hasn’t looked the same since flagging for Adderall against Holly Holm, going 0-3 since. Cavalcanti should strike her way to a decision.
For the bets this weekend, we have three prop bets and one parlay. The prop bets are Hokit by Submission (+550 for .25 units), Barcelos by Decision (+275 for .5 units) and Morales by Submission (+175 for .5 units). The parlay is Hokit to Win Inside the Distance + Cavalcanti ML + Bonfim to Win by Sub or Brown to Win by KO/TKO Alt Method (+215 for .5 units).
I expect Hokit to land some damage on Gimenis and he should have a chance to grab a submission in between ground and pound if he wants it. We’ve seen judges reward damage over control in recent weeks, so taking a shot on Barcelos to do more on the feet to squeeze out a decision win over Ricky Simon.
I didn’t over think the main event, but I think it ends sometime inside the distance. If Bonfim can get some takedowns, he’ll be live for a submission as long as his cardio holds up. And if it stays on the feet, I think Brown will be the more dangerous of the two. Check under the Alternate Double Chance Methods on DraftKings for that line.
That’s a total of four bets for 1.75 units for this week’s tracked bets. For anyone who also bets on NFL, I’m really liking the following Anytime TDs for this weekend: Michael Pittman, Bijan Robinson, Lamar Jackson, De’Von Achane, Quinshon Judkins and Amen-Ra St. Brown.
We got back into the win column last weekend with UFC Vegas 110 after a brutal month of October, so we’ll see if we can carry it over to keep rolling. Remember next weekend features UFC 322 and UFC Qatar closes out the month on Nov 22nd.
Make sure to let us know your favorite picks and bets for tomorrow in the comments! Best of luck on the bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights!
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