It’s almost time for UFC 321 and we’ve got an action-packed lineup on the way from Abu Dhabi! The card features 13 bouts and will be headlined by a pair of title fights.
Tom Aspinall makes the first defense of his undisputed UFC Heavyweight title against Ciryl Gane, while Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern meet in a rematch for the vacant UFC Women’s Strawweight belt.
Two fighters missed weight for the event, with Azat Maksum coming in three pounds over the flyweight limit and Jose Delgado missing featherweight by a pound. Maksum will be fined 30% and the matchup will still go forward. Still no update on Delgado/Wood but would assume it’s still on as well.
My favorite picks for this weekend’s card are Umar Nurmagomedov, Tom Aspinall, Hamdy Abdelwahab and Jaqueline Amorim. My favorite potential betting underdogs are Virna Jandiroba, Nathaniel Wood and Nasrat Haqparast.
Nurmagomedov is coming off his first career loss against Merab Dvalishvili in January and getting the streaking Mario Bautista, but I love the spot for him, particularly in Abu Dhabi. Dana White confirmed at the UFC 321 press conference that if someone wins impressively, they’re next in line for a title shot.
I think Nurmagomedov will push particularly hard to make a statement here and to get another shot at Dvalishvili. Each of Bautista’s last two wins have been close, but I expect Umar to be better anywhere this one goes and will be more live for a stoppage also.
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Aspinall finally gets the opportunity to defend the undisputed belt after Jon Jones’ retirement earlier this year and love the matchup for him against Gane, who is getting his third crack at undisputed UFC gold.
Aspinall should have a massive advantage in the wrestling/grappling department should he need it and I can’t see Gane staying on his feet long at that point.
Tom will likely be content on the feet striking early, but I expect him to go for a takedown eventually, and it will become just a matter of how long Gane survives. Francis Ngannou was able to grapple Gane to a 25-minute decision, Aspinall shouldn’t need nearly that long. I expect him to retain by second round stoppage.
Abdulwahab is far from a title contender at heavyweight, but this is a pretty easy spot to take him against Chris Barnett. I’m a big fan of Barnett’s personality and fighting style, but between injuries, age and inactivity, it’s going to be tough for him to win another UFC level fight.
I expect Abdulwahab will get this one on the ground as early as he can and look to keep the fight there for a TKO stoppage at some point in the fight or to win a clear decision. Also look for him to target the legs on the feet.
Amorim is one of the best prospects coming up in the strawweight division in my opinion and I really like this spot for her against the highly inactive Muzuki, who has only competed twice in this decade (1-1).
Amorim continues to show improvements in her game as she progresses in her UFC run and I think she’ll be the better fighter in this matchup, especially as the fight gets deeper. I think Amorim should pick up a pretty solid decision win with potential for a late sub depending on Muzuki’s cardio.
After going light on the bets and getting washed the last couple of events, I’m going back in heavier for this one and with a wider array of plays, so we’ll see how it goes.
The straight/prop bets for this weekend are Jandiroba ML (+145 for .5 units), Jandiroba by Decision (+300 for .25 units), Amorim to Win in R3/Dec (+150 for .5 units), Valter Walker by KO/TKO (+400 for .25 units) and Aspinall to Win in R2 (+350 for .5 units).
The parlays for the event are: Jailton Almeida to Win Inside the Distance + Nurmagomedov -3.5 Alt Point Spread (+197 for .5 units), Amorim by Decision + Almeida by Submission + Aspinall by KO/TKO (+1482 for .25 units, you can boost to +1878 on DraftKings with method promo) and Amorim to Win and Ov 1.5 Rounds + Abdulwahab by KO/TKO + Jandiroba +5.5 Point Spread + Aspinall to Win in R1/2 (+1013 for .5 units). That’s a total of eight tracked bets for 3.25 units.
I expect Jandiroba and Dern to have a competitive matchup that could swing either way on the cards, but I’m leaning with Jandiroba to be the more dominant of the two this time around.
I’ve seen a lot of people understandably on Amorim by Sub this weekend, but Mizuki has survived to decisions and never been stopped against some solid names pre-UFC and should be able to hold on late or to see the cards again here unless cardio becomes a problem.
Walker should have a dominant wrestling and grappling advantage over the debuting Louis Sutherland, but I expect him to look to go for ground and pound this time around for the finish over another heel hook or other submission.
I also really like Almeida’s chances of putting away Volkov early unless he can be the first UFC opponent of Jailton to avoid ending up on the ground. Almeida has hit at least one takedown in every UFC fight, and I think he’ll be able to put away Volkov while they’re down there, most likely by submission.
Few other spots that I liked but ultimately didn’t play are Wood and Haqparast MLs and the overs/decisions, as well as the Klein/Rebecki fight to go over and to decision.
Hopefully we can get the bets on track with this one to round out things for October. Next month kicks off with back-to-back events at the UFC Apex in Vegas, followed by UFC 322 on November 15th from New York City.
Overall, this should be a really fun card with a lot of potential for finishes. Remember the early start time here in the US, with the prelims starting at 9AM ET. As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!
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