It’s Fight Day for UFC 320 and the drought without a UFC numbered event is coming to an end after six weeks! We have a pair of title fights headlining the event and a fun-filled lineup below them.
Magomed Ankalaev will try to defend his UFC Middleweight title in a rematch against Alex Pereira while Merab Dvalishvili looks to continue his reign of dominance by defending his UFC Bantamweight title against Cory Sandhagen.
Only one fighter missed weight for the event with Macy Chiasson coming in 1.5 pounds over the bantamweight limit for her matchup against Yana Santos. Daniel Santos and JooSang Yoo was also moved to a 153-pound catchweight, reportedly at the request of the Santos side.
My favorite picks for this weekend are Magomed Ankalaev, Patchy Mix, Edmen Shahbazyan and Ateba Gautier. My favorite potential betting upsets are Ramiz Brahimaj and Cory Sandhagen.
The first matchup between Ankalaev and Pereira was relatively close, but barring a big KO shot from Pereira in this one, I’m not sure he’s going to be able to do much more in the rematch. I expect Ankalaev to be a little more comfortable in there having already faced the threat of Pereira for 25-minutes.
He should push the pace more this time and will have opportunities to land big if he works in his combos. I expect Ankalaev to get this one done by KO/TKO in the middle rounds or comfortably on the cards.
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Patchy Mix had a nightmare of a debut earlier this year when he lost a decision to Mario Bautista, but I expect him to look more like himself in this one. He shouldn’t have the octagon jitters he did in his debut, and I think he’ll try to push harder from the start against Jakub Wiklacz, who is making his own UFC debut here.
Mix should be better anywhere this one goes and will likely be aggressive looking for a finish here. Wiklacz has been stopped in all three of his losses and I think there’s a good chance Mix finds a submission to give him another.
Gautier is set to shatter the all-time record for being the biggest betting favorite in UFC history, at least on ESPN sportsbook, where he’s currently listed at -4000 against Tre’ston Vines. Gautier should walk through Vines, who is taking this one on very short notice, but I won’t be touching it for the bets.
Shahbazyan is coming off back-to-back wins and gets another favorable matchup here with Andre Muniz. As long as Shahbazyan stays smart and avoids finding himself on the ground early, he’ll have a massive advantage in the striking against the barely existent chin of Muniz. I expect Edmen to find a KO/TKO sometime in the first two rounds.
For the betting card this weekend, I have a couple of ML parlays and a few straight bets. The parlays are Shahbazyan ML + Mix ML + Ankalaev ML (+174 for 1 unit) and Chiasson ML + Mix ML + Ankalaev (+186 for .75 units). The straight bets are Sandhagen ML (+295 for .5 units), Mix by Submission (+190 for .5 units) and Ankalaev by KO/TKO (+250 for .5 units).
I decided to take a flyer on Sandhagen to pull the upset over Merab because I feel like he presents a more dangerous threat than most of Dvalishvili’s recent opponents and should be able to scramble and defend some takedowns. I think Cory can land some big shots and steal rounds, if not find a finish outright.
That’s a total of five bets for 3.25 units on the tracked bets. I also have a handful of untracked plays coming in needing Mix and Ankalaev ML to cash, so I’m heavily invested on them coming through tonight.
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Overall, I expect this to be a pretty entertaining card that has a lot of potential for finishes and highlight moments. Tonight kicks off a big month of events with UFC Rio (Oct 11), UFC Vancouver (Oct 18) and UFC 321 (Oct 25) also on the books. Let us know who you think is leaving with gold tonight in the comments.
Best of luck on the bets tonight and we hope everyone enjoys the fights!
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