It’s Fight Day for UFC Perth, and despite the lineup being a bit underwhelming overall at this point, there should still be a handful of fun matchups on the way.
Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes are set to clash in the main event that could potentially determine who is next in line for a UFC Light Heavyweight title shot and the card is loaded with local fighters from Australia and New Zealand.
After initially being teased with 17 fights on this card by Dana White, the lineup is now down to just 12 bouts after another one fell off during the weigh-in. Justin Tafa had to pull out of his matchup against Louie Sutherland, reportedly due to illness/sickness.
Ramon Taveras missed the featherweight limit by a pound for his fight against Jack Jenkins, but the fight will still proceed. This is Taveras’ third weight miss between DWCS and the UFC and this miss comes after moving up to 145.
My favorite picks for this card are Ulberg, Navajo Sterling, Jack Jenkins and Jake Matthews. My favorite betting underdog was Sutherland by a wide margin but also liking Charlie Campbell and Rolando Bedoya.
Ulberg enters his first UFC main event spot riding an 8-fight winning streak and finds himself within range of a potential title shot with an impressive win. Reyes has reeled off three consecutive KO/TKO wins to turn his career around after a devastating 4-fight skid, but I hate this matchup for him.
Ulberg should be able to control the range, mix in his kicks and avoid any big shots from Reyes. Unless Reyes decides to wrestle early and finds some success, I think Ulberg will put him out for a big KO/TKO win off a counter or when Reyes enters the pocket.
Sterling, who trains out of City Kickboxing with Ulberg, is 7-0 in his career and has won his first two fights in the UFC. He’s getting another winnable matchup here against Rodolfo Bellato, who has largely looked unimpressive at this level.
While Sterling still clearly has some developing of his own to do, I think he’ll be the better and more dangerous striker in this fight, and he should cruise to a decision or KO/TKO win.
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Jenkins and Taveras could end up being a Fight of the Night contender as neither fighter is opposed to standing and throwing. I expect this to be a pretty fun matchup, but I think Jenkins is the more dangerous fighter between the two. I think he’ll work in some leg kicks and take away the mobility of Taveras to pick up a decision or late TKO win.
Matthews enters his matchup with Neil Magny riding a three-fight winning streak and is coming off a quick submission win in his last fight at UFC Nashville.
Both of these guys have a ton of experience at the UFC level, but I feel like Matthews is still showing improvement and getting better while Magny is closer to the back end. Matthews should be better anywhere this fight goes and can likely get a stoppage if he pushes for one.
For the betting card this weekend, keeping things pretty light on the tracked bets after losing a few on the Sutherland-Tafa cancellation. The prop bets are Thainara by Submission (+300 for .5 units) and Ulberg by R1 KO/TKO (+250 for .5 units). I also have a three-leg parlay out with Sterling ML + Jenkins to Win Ov 1.5 Rounds + Ulberg ML (+209 for .5 units).
That’s a total of three bets for 1.5 units on the tracked plays, but I have a handful of untracked ones open also.
Those include Montague by Sub + Petroski by Decision + Ulberg by KO/TKO Under 3.5 Rounds (+1212 for .25 units), Stirling ML + Matthews ML + Jenkins ML + Ulberg ML + Ankalaev by KO/TKO (+1061 for .25 units, runs into UFC 320 next weekend) and Ulberg by KO/TKO + Jordan Mason Anytime TD (+198 for 1 unit, Vikings/Steelers NFL game).
Reminder that next weekend features UFC 320 headlined by a pair of title fights and ending a six-week stretch without a numbered event.
Alex Pereira will attempt to regain the UFC Light Heavyweight title as Magomed Ankalaev makes his first defense in the main event and Merab Dvalishvili will defend the UFC Bantamweight title for the third time in 2025 when he faces Cory Sandhagen in the co-main event.
Thank you to everyone who continues to Subscribe over on our OddSmokerMMA YouTube Channel as we close in on the 500 Subscriber mark! Check below for highlights from DWCS this past Tuesday and there should be some highlights from UFC Perth later today for anyone who can’t catch the card.
Hopefully we’ll have a pretty good night of fights to kick off what should be a fun month of events also featuring UFC 320, UFC Rio, UFC Vancouver and UFC 321. Best of luck to everyone on their bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights!
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