It’s almost Fight Day for the third annual Noche UFC card, which is taking place in San Antonio, Texas this year after some construction issues forced it to move from the originally planned site of Guadalajara, Mexico.
While the card feels a bit underwhelming in comparison to last year’s event at The Sphere, there’s a still a lot of fun matchups, particularly the main event featuring Diego Lopes vs Jean Silva in a featherweight clash.
Only one fighter missed weight with Kelvin Gastelum coming in 5 pounds over the middleweight limit. Gastelum’s miss continues a growing stretch of cards with fighters missing wide (Bryan Battle, Brian Ortega and Losene Keita). Dustin Stoltzfus agreed to keep the fight and will receive 35% of Gastelum’s fight purse.
My favorite picks for the UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs Silva card are Tatiana Suarez, Kelvin Gastelum, Jared Gordon and Alessandro Costa. Jesus Aguilar is my favorite betting underdog on the card, with Diego Ferriera and Santiago Luna having flipped to favorites.
By far my favorite pick of the weekend is Tatiana Suarez to bounce back into the win column. Suarez is coming off a rough outing against Weili Zhang where she suffered the first loss of her career, but she’s getting a much more favorable matchup here against Amanda Lemos.
Lemos enters off a win but has been taken down in four consecutive fights and has struggled historically against solid wrestlers with good grappling. I expect Suarez to get this one on the ground early and start looking for finishes and think she’ll find a submission at some point.
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Gastelum gets a good matchup against Dustin Stoltzfus and could really use a win here, particularly after such a bad miss on the scales. Stoltzfus will have height/reach advantages, but Gastelum is used to be the smaller fighter so not too worried there.
Other than that, I expect Gastelum to work his striking, pick his moments and mix in takedowns if needed for a decision or late stoppage win.
Jared Gordon against Rafa Garcia is another spot I really like this weekend. Gordon should be the more active fighter in the striking and hold his own in the wrestling/grappling department as well. There’s a chance Gordon could find a late stoppage down the stretch, but I think he gets this one done on the cards.
Costa is a heavy betting favorite over the debuting Alden Coria, but I expect him to justify the line with a dominant showing. A teammate of Diego Lopes, Costa has shown to be a talented fighter at the UFC level already with his two losses coming to some of the best in the division. I think Costa gets this one by dominant decision or KO/TKO.
For the Noche UFC bets this weekend, keeping things pretty light since there’s not a lot that I trust on this card and mixing in a couple of boxing lines. For the prop bets, I have Tatiana Suarez by Submission (+175 for .5 units) and Terence Crawford to Win by Decision (+210 for .5 units).
The parlays for this one are Suarez to Win Inside the Distance + Gastelum to Win Ov1.5 Rounds + Gordon to Win Ov1.5 Rounds (+344 for .5 units), Costa ML + Suarez ML + Canelo/Crawford Either Fighter to be Knocked Down – Yes (+252 for .5 units) and Suarez -7.5 Point Spread + Jean Silva by KO/TKO + Canelo/Crawford Goes Distance – Yes (+315 for .5 units).
That’s five bets for a total of 2.5 units. I have an untracked parlay with Suarez by Submission + Gastelum to Win in R3/Dec + Gordon by Decision + Canelo/Crawford Either Fighter to be Knocked Down – Yes (+1618 for .25 units).
The reason I went so heavy on Suarez props is because I also already have her ML set to cash a ticket from DWCS earlier this week, so would recommend working it in somewhere if you’re going heavy with her props.
Remember there’s an early start time for this one, with prelims kicking off at 3PM ET, so the event will lead into the Canelo vs Crawford main card taking place in Vegas, which is also being promoted by Dana White and TKO.
Also, we’d like to say another big thank you to everyone who has subscribed to our OddSmokerMMA YouTube channel as it continues to grow. Check below the picks this week for some DWCS and UFC Paris highlights if you missed either and the links should update tomorrow during the card as we upload new posts with Noche UFC highlights.
Overall, this should be a fun card before we get a one-week break heading into UFC Perth to finish the month. Let us know who you’re liking this weekend and favorite bets in the comments. Best of luck to everyone on their bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights!
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