It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Shanghai and since the card is over in China, we’ve got a very early start here in the US with the prelims starting at 3AM ET. The card features twelve matchups and is pretty decent overall, but if I’m being honest, it’s not one that I would particularly go out of the way for to watch in general.

While there technically weren’t any weight misses, Brian Ortega was so far off target that his fight with Aljamain Sterling had to be moved to a 153-pound catchweight.

Incredibly embarrassing on Ortega’s part considering the promotion just cut Brian Battle for multiple misses barely 24 hours earlier. Ortega also dropped out on fight day from the co-main event of UFC 303 last summer.

My favorite picks for this one are Aljamain Sterling, Taiyilake Nueraji and Yizha. Favorite potential betting upset that I’m liking is Waldo Cortes-Acosta.

I already loved Sterling in his matchup with Ortega before the weight issues and nothing really changes. Ortega is 1-3 since 2020 and hasn’t looked particularly good in a long time. Sterling should be the better grappler and frankly might be the better striker too at this point.

The first round or so could be competitive depending on whether or not Ortega has anything wrong that led to the weight change, but I expect Sterling to start taking over for a pretty clean decision or stoppage in the latter rounds (reminder this a five round co-main event).

Nueraji is 11-1 with a 100% finish rate and 10 stoppages via KO/TKO. He’ll be making his UFC debut against Keifer Crosbie, who is 0-2 in the UFC and stopped in 4/5 losses. While Crosbie has switched gyms and likely made improvements, I’m not sure it will be enough to keep him safe here. I expect Nueraji to find a highlight finish.

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I also really like Yizha in his matchup with Westin Wilson, although his line has gotten absurd considering he’s still 0-2 in the UFC. Both fighters are extremely good finishers and would be shocked if this one sees the judges. I think Yizha will be able to get this one done sometime in the first round.

For the betting card, I’m not doing a lot on this one with a handful of small prop bets and a moneyline. The UFC Shanghai bets are Cortes-Acosta ML (+195 for .5 units), Sterling to Win Inside the Distance (+275 for .5 units) Johnny Walker to Win Inside the Distance (+300 for .5 units) and Walker by Submission (+1100 for .25 units).

In all likelihood, Zhang Mingyang is going to nail the layup opportunity the UFC has put in front of him to find another KO/TKO win in front of his native crowd. However, Walker is an extremely dangerous fighter in his own right if Zhang can’t land on him early or gets taken to the ground.

While I’m picking Zhang this week, I felt obligated to sprinkle the Walker side for the bets.

I also decided to take a shot on WCA against Sergei Pavlovich since I think he’ll be the more active fighter, particularly down the stretch if this fight gets there. Pavlovich might take the opening round with some big moments, but without a finish, I think Cortes-Acosta can take the latter two rounds with more volume.

This wasn’t the easiest card to settle on picks or bets with so many lower level, unproven names spread throughout it, so we’ll see how everything plays out. Plenty of highlights are up on our YouTube from DWCS this week (all five winners were signed to contracts) and Road to UFC 4: Shanghai earlier today, so be sure to check those out if you missed them.

Hope everyone enjoys the fights in the morning and best of luck on the bets!

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