It’s Fight Day for UFC Vegas 109! We’ve got a pretty decent lineup for this one featuring 12 fights and the event will be headlined by a middleweight clash between Roman Dolidze and Anthony Hernandez. Three fighters initially missed weight by less than a pound, however, all three made weight on their subsequent attempts.

My favorite picks this weekend are Steve Erceg, Elijah Smith and Anthony Hernandez. My favorite potential betting upset is Andre Fili.

Erceg will be looking to halt a 3-fight losing streak and absolutely love this matchup for him to get back on track. Erceg was fast tracked to a title shot and has been facing the best in the world during his skid, but Ode Osbourne will be a considerable step back for him here.

Osbourne is a dangerous striker but has also shown he’s very prone to being stopped (6/8 losses) and particularly on the ground (4/8 losses by submission). I think Erceg will look to grapple some in this one and think he can put away Osbourne down the stretch.

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Smith is another fighter getting a great spot to pick up a win and should frankly be better anywhere in this one against Toshiomi Kazama.

Smith has put together back-to-back impressive decision wins on DWCS and in his UFC debut and I think he’ll build on that here landing some big strikes against Kazama, who has 3 of his 4 losses via KO/TKO. I expect Smith to be able to put him away sometime in the first two rounds.

I also really like Hernandez in the main event. As long as he can stay safe on the feet early, I expect it to be a competitive opening two rounds before Fluffy slowly starts taking over down the stretch. I think he’ll have the better cardio and be able to wear on Dolidze in the latter rounds for a decision win or late submission.

There weren’t really many betting underdogs that I liked for this card, but one I did ultimately pick was Fili in his matchup with Christian Rodriguez.

C-Rod has shown to be very solid when it comes to matching up against highly touted up and comers but has also struggled when he’s faced more seasoned competition. I expect this be a fairly close back and forth fight, but like Fili to squeak out the win on the cards.

For the tracked betting card this weekend, I have a few prop bets and a small parlay. The prop bets are Raffael Cerqueira by KO/TKO in R1 (+2500 for .25 units), Fili by Decision (+300 for .5 units) and Erceg by Submission (+175 for .5 units). The parlay is Cody Brundage ML + Smith to Win in R1/2 + Erceg to Win Inside the Distance (+295 for .5 units).

The Cerqueira play is a total dart throw and frankly Julius Walker should cruise, but I feel like that line was extremely off considering it’s basically Cerqueira’s only path to winning and is playable for a sprinkle at +2000 or better.

I also have an untracked parlay open including NFL preseason for today which includes Jaguars -4.5 + Chiefs/Cardinals U39.5 + Brundage ML + Fili/Rodriguez Goes the Distance Yes (+799 for .5 units). I also have a couple of open plays coming in needing Brundage and/or Erceg ITD to cash.

Reminder that Dana White’s Contender Series returns this Tuesday and will be running for the next ten weeks. Be sure to check back next weekend for UFC 319 picks and bets, the lineup for that one is shaping up to be a lot of fun. Some early picks I like are Chimaev, Prates and MVP for anyone looking to play lines from both cards.

We finally got back on track a bit with the bets last weekend at UFC Vegas 108, so we’ll see if we can keep it going with a slightly tougher slate. Absolutely thrilled we have NFL returning to mix and match with UFC again, so expect to see more of that in the coming months. As always, we hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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