It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Abu Dhabi and we’ve got a pretty solid card on the way, particularly for a Fight Night lineup. The event will be headlined by a middleweight clash between longtime division standout Robert Whittaker and surging contender Reinier de Ridder. The lineup features 12 fights, and all 24 fighters successfully made weight for the event.

My favorite picks this weekend are Shara Magomedov, Carlos Leal, Petr Yan and Ibo Aslan. My favorite potential betting upsets are de Ridder in the main event and Bogdan Guskov.

Magomedov is 15-1 in his career (4-1 UFC) and looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career here against Marc-Andre Barriault and I love the matchup for him. While he struggled against the striking of MVP and finding his range, Magomedov should be able to control his distance much better here and find some big shots for a KO/TKO.

I also really like Leal in his matchup against Muslim Salikhov, who turned 41 last month and despite a decent record in the UFC, is definitely on his way out. Leal throws heavy shots and should be able to land some big ones on Salikhov, who also prefers to be on the feet striking. Unless Salikhov suddenly turns into a wrestler, Leal should get this one done via KO/TKO or on the cards.

Yan is taking a tough matchup here against Marcus McGhee that seems like a high risk, low reward situation for him and he’ll need to show up if he wants to stay among the top of the division. The former division champ should be able to control the range and put up enough to get this one done in what I expect to be an exciting decision or late stoppage.

Aslan is getting a solid opportunity to get back into the win column after a setback against Ion Cutelaba. He’ll be facing Billy Elekana in this one and I expect him to be the more active and aggressive fighter on the feet. Aslan throws bombs, as seen by the 100% KO/TKO rate in his 14 wins, and I like his chances of finding another one in this matchup.

I also love de Ridder in the main event to pull off an upset over Whittaker and continue his climb in the division. The former two-division ONE Championship champ is 3-0 in the UFC all by stoppage will be taking a step up in competition for sure, but it’s one I think he can handle.

While Whittaker will almost certainly be the better fighter on the feet, I don’t think he’ll be able to stay upright against the large frame of RDR. I expect RDR to avoid the big shots early and eventually get this one on the ground for a finish.

For the betting card this weekend, I have a couple of prop bets and a few small parlays for the tracked bets. The prop bets are de Ridder to Win Inside the Distance (+150 for .5 units) and de Ridder by Submission (+300 for .25 units).

The parlays are Aslan by KO/TKO + Mitchell/Nurmagomedov Goes the Distance – Yes (+182 for .5 units), Buchecha ML + Magomedov ML + de Ridder ML (+250 for.5 units), Aslan to Win in R1/2 + Magomedov by KO/TKO + Yan to Win in R3/Dec (+337 for .5 units) and Ribas ML + Mitchell ML + de Ridder ML (+575 for .5 units).

Ultimately passed on playing Leal since I still haven’t gotten the taste of disappointment to go away from last weekend with Kevin Holland coming up short at UFC 318 against an aging opponent, but you can swap him in for Magomedov if you prefer. That’s a total of six bets for 2.75 units this week.

Be sure to check back next weekend for UFC Vegas 108 coverage and don’t miss our guy Chris “The Problem” Duncan in the co-main event against Mateusz Rebecki in an absolute banger for the lightweight division! That fight should be a lot of fun and there are several other good matchups on the card to get things started for August.

Remember this card has an early start time here in the US, with the prelims starting at 12PM ET, so adjust your schedules and plans accordingly. Overall, it should be a pretty entertaining day of fights to finish things off for the month. As always, best of luck on the bets this weekend and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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