It’s Fight Day for UFC Nashville and we are absolutely thrilled to be attending this one! The lineup features 12 matchups and will be headlined by a heavyweight clash between Derrick Lewis and Tallison Teixeira that should be absolute fireworks for however long it lasts. Chidi Njokuani was the only fighter to miss weight coming in 0.5 pounds over the welterweight limit yesterday.

My favorite picks this weekend are Gabriel Bonfim, Vitor Petrino, Mike Davis and Fatima Kline. My favorite potential upsets are Calvin Kattar and Valter Walker.

Bonfim is getting his toughest test to date against Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson and has a big opportunity to jump up in the welterweight rankings. While Thompson is one of the most talented strikers in MMA history, age is starting to become a factor at 42 years old. Thompson has struggled against takedowns recently, surrendering four against Joaquin Buckley, and that’s a red flag here against an opponent with lethal finishing ability. I expect Bonfim to get this one to the ground and find a finish at some point during the fight, most likely via submission.

Petrino is moving up to heavyweight for this fight against Austen Lane, and to the surprise of many, actually showed up heavier for the weigh-in than Lane. It’ll be interesting to see how Petrino fares moving up in weight, but it seems like there’s a pretty chance that the power he had a light heavyweight will carry up with him. Lane has been KO/TKOed in all six of his losses and I think there’s a pretty good chance we’ll see Petrino put him away also.

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Mike Davis is one of the biggest betting favorites on the card, and it’s pretty easy to see why. Mitch Ramirez has limited UFC experience and is 0-2 between his short notice debut and DWCS opportunity while taking a considerable amount of damage in both. I expect Davis to be the more active striker and to accumulate more damage as this one goes on to pick up a pretty clear decision win or late stoppage.

Kline looks to follow up a dominant showing in her last fight in January with another big showing here in Nashville against Melissa Martinez. Kline’s only career loss came in her UFC debut up at 125 against Jasmine Jasudavicius and has otherwise looked pretty phenomenal. I expect her to continue to shine at strawweight in this matchup and move to 2-0 in the UFC in her natural division with a dominant decision or late stoppage victory.

For the betting card this weekend, I have a few prop bets and one parlay on the tracked bets. The prop bets are Eduarda Moura to Win Inside the Distance (+250 for .5 units), Bonfim by Submission (+170 for .5 units) and Calvin Kattar by Decision (+400 for .5 units). The parlay is Kattar/Garcia Ov 1.5 Rounds + Bonfim to Win Inside the Distance + Lewis/Teixeira U 1.5 Rounds (+348 for .75 units). That’s a total of four bets for 2.25 units. I also have Kattar ML, Morgan Charriere ML, Tafa/Tukkos U 1.5 and Bonfim ML included in some untracked plays.

While Moura is facing one of the toughest fighters in women’s MMA in Lauren Murphy, she’s also catching her coming off a lengthy layoff that included surgery in a pre-announced retirement fight. While it’s entirely possible Murphy shows up and looks solid early, I’m not sure she will be able to keep this on the feet and maintain a hard pace for 15 minutes and expect Moura to be very live for a stop on the ground if it gets there.

I got the line on Bonfim early in the week and it’s closed considerably since then, so at this point I’d recommend just playing his ITD line in small parlays that pay in that range. I also really liked Kattar to bounce back into the win column here against Steve Garcia. While Garcia has been on an absolute tear reeling off KO/TKO wins, Kattar is a considerable step up in competition and very durable. It’s also Kattar’s most favorable matchup in several years, and if he can avoid an early power shot from Garcia, I think he should cruise to a win down the stretch, most likely on the cards.

Huge apologies for not getting anything posted for UFC 317 here on the site, I came down with a brutal stomach bug the day before the fight and was out of commission for several days. Hopefully everyone is Subscribing to our YouTube channel where I was able to get UFC 317 picks and bets for the card out Friday morning before getting sick, and if so, you would’ve ended up in the green off a very exciting night of fights.

We have a couple of big announcements to celebrate here at OddSmokerMMA also. Huge shoutout and thank you to Lewis Simpson and Combat Sports UK for helping get Kala approved for her first UFC media credentials this weekend at UFC Nashville! She already has several interviews up on her Instagram with Brendan Allen, Youssef Zelal and Kru Bob Perez, so be sure to check those out and stay tuned for post-fight coverage at the event tonight as well!

On top of that, Kala has also joined Fight Game Management as an agent and will now be representing fighters and helping them grow their careers in new and exciting ways as she helps build the FGM roster here in North America. She already has one fighter officially signed and on board and is looking to add more, so if you know any combat sports athletes looking for representation or who just want to know more about their options, be sure to send them her way!

The UFC also officially announced Chris Duncan’s upcoming fight with Mateusz Rebecki at UFC Vegas 108 on August 2nd and we couldn’t be happier to be working with Chris again as he prepares for this one. Be sure to stay tuned for more on Chris in the coming weeks and you can also follow his journey even closer on his newly launched Patreon.

Finally, we’d like to extend a huge thank you as always to NextMMA.com for letting us sponsor their fight card for UFC Nashville this weekend. If you haven’t already visited their site, I strongly encourage all MMA fans to do so as they continue to add new and amazing features over there from these awesome (and printable) fight cards to statistical career breakdowns, betting odds movement and more!

While there has been a considerable amount of grumbling online in the MMA community about the quality of this card, I fully expect it to be one of those lineups that over delivers and should feature quite a few very exciting matchups and finishes. If you’re watching the event tonight and they are showing walk outs on air, be sure to keep an eye out for me near the entrance, and if anyone is also attending the event tonight definitely let us know! As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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