It’s Fight Day for UFC Atlanta and we have a really fun lineup on the way with this one, particularly for a Fight Night card featuring 3 former undisputed UFC champions. There are 13 fights scheduled for the card, and despite an initial weight miss by Mansur Abdul-Malik, all 26 fighters successfully made weight.

My favorite picks this weekend are Mansur Abdul-Malik, Malcolm Wellmaker, Ricky Simon and Joaquin Buckley. My favorite potential betting upsets are Cody Garbrandt, Cody Durden and Miranda Maverick.

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Abdul-Malik is getting a great matchup to continue building on his hot start with the UFC and I love his chances to improve to 3-0 with the promotion here. Abdul-Malik is a violent striker with a lot of power and gets Cody Brundage in this one. Brundage has a lot of UFC experience, but it’s been a very mixed bag as far as results so far going 5-5-1 with several stoppage losses and we’ve seen Brundage check out in a couple of them. I think Abdul-Malik will keep this one on the feet and land the bigger shots to get this one done via KO/TKO sometime in the first half of the fight.

It took a lot of effort for the promotion to find Wellmaker an opponent to fight at home in Georgia, but props to Kris Moutinho for taking the call to return for another tough one. Moutinho has won 5 straight fights on the regional scene to earn his way back to the UFC; however, he’s got one of the brighter prospects in the bantamweight division here. Wellmaker has shown he has game-changing power in his striking and I think he’ll have success early and often finding big shots in this matchup for a stoppage sometime in the first two rounds.

Ricky Simon saw an opponent change during fight week, but I actually like this matchup better for him against Cam Smotherman than I did when he was set to face Charles Jourdain. Simon has faced some of the best competition the UFC bantamweight division has to offer and is actually the last fighter with a win over reigning champion Merab Dvalishvili. Smotherman has decent striking, but I don’t expect him to be able to handle the pressure and ability to change levels from Simon. I expect Simon to get this one done via clear decision or KO/TKO at some point.

Buckley is getting the biggest opportunity of his career in this one facing former undisputed champ Kamaru Usman in the main event, and while I expect it to be a competitive matchup, I really like Buckley’s chances here. Usman is coming off an extended layoff and multi-fight losing streak with a lot of questions surrounding the state of his knees at this point. Buckley is 6-0 so far since dropping down to welterweight, and as long as and he’s smart in this matchup, he should be able to stay standing enough to land the bigger shots for a decision or potentially another KO/TKO win.

For the tracked bets this weekend, I have a couple of straight plays with several small parlays. The straight bets are Garbrandt ML (+155 for .5 units) and Garbrandt by Decision (+425 for .5 units). The parlays are Rose/Maverick Goes the Distance – Yes + Buckley to Win and Ov2.5 Rounds (+230 for .5 units), Horth by Dec + Simon by KO/TKO or Decision Double Chance + Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO Un1.5 Rounds (+281 for .5 units) and Oumar Sy by Decision + Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO + Buckley ML (+468 for .5 units).

I really like Garbrandt’s experience in this one and think he’ll be able to squeeze out a pretty fun matchup with Raoni Barcelos on the cards. I’m pretty high on Sy, but I’m not sure he can put away Alonzo Menefield inside the distance, so I took a shot on him picking this one up by decision. I also have a couple of open plays coming in that need Simon ML, Buckley ML and the co-main to go the distance. That’s a total of 5 tracked bets for 2.25 units for this week.

We just want to say another huge thank you to everyone who ordered merch from our drops with Miranda Maverick and Cody Durden for their respective fights tonight. It was an honor getting to work with both of them and we hope to have opportunities to do more in the future with them and other fighters at this level thanks to everyone’s support helping us continue to grow!

Also, huge thank you to everyone who has checked out The Cage Walk Podcast w/ Kala and/or subscribed to our YouTube channel already! We have some media day, ceremonial weigh-in and post-fight press conference content available over on our channel from the PFL World Tournament Semifinals in Nashville, TN this past Thursday. Kala did an awesome job covering the event and has been invited back in the future, so stay tuned for more PFL coverage coming! She also has interviews up with Miranda Maverick, Cody Durden and Andre Petroski from tonight’s card.

Overall, this should be a pretty good lineup, and I expect the crowd in Atlanta to be pretty hot given this is their first time getting a card since UFC 236. I’ve had a pretty rough run the last few cards with the bets and got particularly torched last weekend with Patchy Mix and Sean O’Malley, so apologies to anyone that has started tailing recently, hopefully the comeback starts this week with some better results. Be sure to check back next weekend for UFC Baku before we cap off the month with UFC 317. As always, best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights tonight!

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