It’s almost Fight Day for UFC Vegas 107 and it should be a pretty interesting card headlined by a women’s flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber that could determine who’s next in line to challenge for Valentina Shevchenko’s UFC Flyweight title belt. There were a lot of changes made to this lineup heading into fight week, including Michael Aswell stepping up on two days’ notice to face Oki Bolaji in his UFC debut, and the changes continued today.

The weigh-in for the event was an absolute clown show with multiple misses, a change of weight classes and a cancellation. Maycee Barber missed weight by .5 pounds in her first main event with a potential title shot on the line, Vieira/Chiasson was moved to featherweight, Trevin Giles mysteriously developed an injury forcing a cancellation against Andreas Gustafsson, and Allan Nascimento missed by 1.5 pounds.

My favorite picks this weekend are Erin Blanchfield, Billy Ray Goff, and Zach Reese. Andreas Gustafsson was my fourth confident pick, and I won’t be replacing on a shaky card that was already a bit iffy for on confident picks. I really like Rayanne dos Santos but would worry on the cards. My favorite potential betting upsets are Jafel Filho and Ludovit Klein.

Blanchfield is 7-1 in the UFC and entering her third consecutive main event spot this weekend. While I expect this fight with Barber, who has won six straight fights, to be very competitive, I like Erin’s experience in five round fights and her ability to dig deep late in them that she’s displayed. Barber is coming off a yearlong medical-related layoff and hasn’t had UFC experience in the championship rounds, so it’s hard to know how she will look if it goes long. I expect Blanchfield to be aggressive, get some takedowns and look to frustrate Barber for a decision win or late stoppage.

Goff saw an opponent change during fight week and will now be facing Ramiz Brahimaj and I love the swap. Goff is coming off a Fight of the Night performance at UFC St Louis last year that he arguably could have won and should look to continue to build on that here. Brahimaj is 3-3 in the UFC and the quality of his wins haven’t exactly aged well. I expect Goff to avoid the submission from Brahimaj and get this one done down the stretch or on the cards.

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Reese is 8-2 in his career and catching a very favorable matchup against Dusko Todorovic to add another win to the resume. I expect him to be the more durable and dangerous fighter in the striking exchanges and think he will be able to find Todorovic’s chin sometime in the opening rounds for a TKO/KO or possibly club and sub victory.

For the bets this weekend, we have a handful of prop bets and a few small parlays open. The prop bets for this one are Filho to Win and Ov1.5 Rounds (+215 for .5 units), Filho by Decision (+450 for .25 units) and dos Santos by Submission (+500 for .25 units). For the parlays, we have Klein ML + Blanchfield ML (+245 for .5 units), Chiasson ML + Blanchfield to Win and Ov2.5 Rounds (+175 for .5 units), and Filho ML + Reese ML + Goff ML + Blanchfield ML (+492 for .25 units). That’s a total of six plays for 2.25 units.

I absolutely love Filho in his matchup against Nascimento, who is returning off a very lengthy layoff. I think he’ll be the more dangerous fighter on the feet, stay off the ground and/or avoid submission threats and get this one done on the cards. I also think Klein is a terrible matchup for Mateusz Gamrot, who I really like in general. I expect Klein to be able to squeeze out a decision via more damage on the feet and scrambling back up from the takedowns he’s sure to face.

Overloaded a tad more than intended on Blanchfield with the parlays, so feel free to swap that line out with something else if you prefer but love it even more after Barber looked terrible on the scales. Also decided to sprinkle Rayanne dos Santos by submission since I think she’ll be very live for an armbar in particular if this one goes to the ground against Alice Ardelean. dos Santos needs a win here after a 0-2 start in the UFC and should look to take the judges out of it.

To celebrate our merch collaboration with Miranda Maverick, we’re running a free giveaway over on our Instagram page with a pair of signed 8×8 prints and two cards. Four winners will be randomly selected on June 13th, one item for each winner, so be sure to check it out and enter to win! Tune in on June 14th for UFC Atlanta when Miranda takes on Rose Namajunas in the co-main event of the card, it’s going to be a fun one!

There’s only a little bit of time to get those merch orders in before UFC Atlanta in two weeks, so make sure to get those orders in ASAP if you were interested and hoping to receive your shipments before the fights. Huge thank you to everyone who has already ordered from one or both collabs, we really appreciate everyone showing love to the fighters who give us the opportunity to cook and have some other fun ones in the works too.

We also have a new OddSmokerMMA YouTube channel that’s officially LIVE! We have 25+ interviews already uploaded from episodes of The Cage Walk Podcast w/ Kala and will be putting some other fun content up over there as well, including early picks/leans for UFC cards each week for the foreseeable future.

Another reason to subscribe: Quick Picks and Betting Card have been up since earlier this morning for those in a rush but always make sure to still check back here after weigh-ins for changes since I overlooked a play and only posted 5/6 in the video and sometimes fights drop as well. Days like today, for instance, are why I usually wait to post my picks until after weigh in results are in, but we’re looking for ways to rewards our subscribers over there for those interested.

So please be sure to check it out and share so we can continue to grow and unlock more features to use over there and keep more new content coming! Merch buyers and YouTube Subscribers also get bonus entries into the Miranda Maverick giveaway, so be sure to send us screenshots on our Instagram DM for your extra entries!

This should be a pretty fun card that hopefully overperforms much like UFC Vegas 106 two weeks ago, so we’ll see how it turns out. Either way, it should be a great appetizer to get us ready for UFC 316 next weekend in Newark, New Jersey. Be sure to keep an eye on the YouTube channel this week, we have a handful of great interviews scheduled that you won’t want to miss. As always, we hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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