It’s Fight Day for UFC 315 from Montreal! We have a pair of title fights at the top of the card with Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena for the UFC Welterweight championship and Valentina Shevchenko taking on Manan Fiorot for the UFC Women’s Flyweight title to begin her second reign as champion. We only had one official weight miss (Bruno Silva one pound over the middleweight limit), however, Jose Aldo and Aiemann Zahabi was moved to featherweight after Aldo struggled with his cut.

My favorite picks for today’s card are Benoit Saint Denis, Belal Muhammad, Jasmine Jasudavicius, and Aldo. My favorite potential betting upsets are Alexa Grasso and Modestas Bukauskas.

Saint Denis was originally set to face Joel Alverez in what would have been an awesome matchup, but he’ll now be facing Kyle Prepolec after Alverez was forced out with an injury. Saint Denis is coming off back-to-back losses and took a lot of damage in his last one, but I love this spot for him to bounce back into the win column. Prepolec went 0-2 in his first UFC run against much easier competition and despite looking good since being cut, this is a brutal spot to return. I expect Saint Denis to look to get this one on the ground early and think he can find a stoppage in the first two rounds.

Muhammad gets a lot of hate from the fanbase, but there’s no denying the run he has been on to get here including absolutely dominating Leon Edwards in his last outing to win the belt. Jack Della Maddalena has been on a long streak of his own, however, I don’t think he’s looked particularly great in his past three fights and barring an early KO/TKO, I think he’s in for a long night. Muhammad should be able to get this one on the ground and pile up control time while burning out the cardio of Della Maddalena and mixing in enough damage to take the rounds. I think Muhammad gets this one done pretty comfortably on the cards.

Jasudavicius is getting a tough opponent in Jessica Andrade, but I think this is an excellent spot for her. Jasudavicius will have six-inch height and reach advantages and will be the much larger fighter, while a majority of Andrade’s best work has come at strawweight where she enjoys a similar advantage of usually being bigger than her opponents. I think Jasudavicius will be able to hold her own in the striking exchanges and will be able to get this on the ground. I expect Jasudavicius to be able to find a stoppage, most likely in the second or third round.

I admit the weight issues have made me a bit more hesitant on Aldo; however, I still like this matchup for him, and he remains one of more confident picks on this one. This fight will likely stay on the feet where Aldo should be able to chop up the legs of Zahabi and control the distance to stay safe on the other end. I think the move up to featherweight will benefit him as well considering a lot of his best work has come in that division and he reportedly didn’t drain himself too much before the decision to move up. I think Aldo gets this one done in a competitive decision or by late KO/TKO.

For the betting card this weekend, I have one prop bet and a handful of small parlays out. The prop bet is Mike Malott by Submission (+350 for .5 units). The parlays include Bukauskas ML + Aldo ML + Muhammad ML (+313 for .5 units), Aldo ML + Muhammad by Decision (+219 for .5 units) and Saint Denis by Submission + Aldo ML + Fiorot ML + Muhammad ML (+1033 for .25 units). That’s a total of four tracked bets for 1.75 units.

As usual, I have a handful of open plays coming in that have some legs already, including a couple from UFC Des Moines last weekend. The lines needed to cash those tickets are Alexa Grasso and/or Muhammad ML. I didn’t get the best line for Grasso as plenty of fight week money came in on Natalia Silva, but I still love the matchup for her. While I’m very high on Silva and think she has a great future in the division, I expect Grasso to be a little too much, too soon for her on her climb.

This should be a pretty fun card overall, although it might be a long one as I expect a lot of decisions on the main card. The tracked bets each of the past two weekends have largely been a wash, so hopefully we can get back on track with a solid outing on this one. Be sure to check down below the picks for some fun news and updates around here at OddSmokerMMA and as always, we hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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