It’s Fight Day for UFC Des Moines! We have twelve fights headed our way later headlined by what should be a great bantamweight matchup between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo with big implications for the title picture in the division. In a pleasant surprise this week, there we no misses at the weigh-ins yesterday for the card.

My favorite picks this weekend are Cory Sandhagen, Mason Jones, Gillian Robertson and Bo Nickal. My favorite potential betting upsets for this one are Yana Santos and Cam Smotherman.

Sandhagen can solidify his spot as next in line for a title shot with a big performance in this one against Figgy and I like his chances to make a statement. Figueiredo is coming off a tough loss to Petr Yan where he was more than doubled up in the striking. Cory is going to have the size and length to do the same or worse here if Figueiredo can’t land something big early or get some control time, and I don’t see either. I think Sandhagen will be able to put Figgy away down the stretch or win a dominant decision.

Mason Jones and Jeremy Stephens are both returning to the promotion for this matchup, but only one is expected to be around for very long. Stephens was brought back for a one-fight deal at home in Iowa, and while I think he’ll try to put on a show, he’s got his hands full with Jones. I expect Stephens to look good early before starting to slow fairly quickly and Jones to take over from there. I like Jones to get this one done in the third or on the cards.

Robertson is getting a big opportunity here to jump into the Top 10 of her division against Marina Rodriguez, and while it’s a tough matchup, I like her chances. Rodriguez is a great striker, but she doesn’t have the best takedown defense and could find herself in trouble here if this one hits the ground. I think Robertson will be able to hold her own in the striking exchanges while she works this one to the ground and expect her to find a sub in the latter rounds.

Nickal is another fighter getting a huge opportunity this weekend as he’ll compete in the co-main event against Reinier de Ridder. Neither one of these guys are particularly known for their striking, but I think Nickal can get the better of those exchanges in a matchup where the wrestling and grappling might cancel each other out a bit. I expect this one to be a pretty close back and forth early on but think Nickal will have the better cardio late to win a decision or late stop.

For the tracked betting card this weekend, there wasn’t a ton of stuff that I trusted and/or loved the betting lines for, so I kept things pretty tight with a pair of small parlays and a prop bet. The parlays are Jones to Win in R3/Decision + Sandhagen -5.5 Point Spread (+205 for .5 units) and Nickal to Win and Ov1.5 Rounds + Sandhagen to Win Inside the Distance (+465 for .5 units). The prop bet that I took a shot on is Robertson by Submission (+275 for .5 units). That’s a total of three tracked bets for 1.5 units.

Like last week, I have a lot of open parlays heading into the weekend that I can’t technically track but like to include. The various lines I need to cash on those tickets include Gaston Bolanos ML, Robertson ML, Montel Jackson ML, Sandhagen -5.5 and Sandhagen ITD. I also have a couple of them that extend into next weekend at UFC 315 including Belal Muhammad ML and Alexa Grasso ML. Our six-week streak of finishing in the green ended last weekend on the tracked bets by .2 units, but we lit them up on untracked where we had Ian Garry ML heavy, so always check this section too.

We’re extremely proud to announce that our merch collab with Cody Durden was officially the hottest of the month for April on MILLIONS and we couldn’t be more excited! Much love to everyone who has already shown some love and support by ordering one, we will definitely be doing some type of giveaway in the near future for people who order and have something else coming also for everyone, so stay tuned for more information on that!

Speaking of merch collaborations, we’re putting together the finishing touches and details on another very exciting one that we’re really hyped about featuring another UFC fighter. Keep an eye out this week on our social media and/or check back here for our UFC 315 picks for the big announcement! We also added some new episodes of “The Cage Walk Podcast with Kala” this week on MILLIONS and you might find a clue there about this upcoming collab too!

This should be a pretty exciting card tonight and I expect the crowd to be hyped with the UFC finally returning to Iowa after nearly a quarter century, so we’ll see how everything goes. Be sure to check back next weekend for UFC 315 and keep an eye out for more big news coming in the near future. We want to extend a huge thank you to everyone who has continued to show us support and helped us in our journey to grow, it means the world to us! Best of luck to everyone on the bets tonight and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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