It’s Fight Day for UFC Vegas 105! We have a twelve-fight lineup headed our way later this afternoon, and while the card is a bit light on star power, it should be a pretty good night of action at the Apex. The event will be headlined by a featherweight matchup between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy that could position the winner into the title picture.

There was only one weight miss for the card with Cortavious Romious missing weight by 3.5 pounds, however, we lost a fight between Daniel Santos and Davey Grant after Santos was pulled due to illness.

My favorite picks for this card are Dione Barbosa, Lerone Murphy, Torrez Finney and Loma Lookboonmee. My favorite potential betting upset is Rhys McKee.

Barbosa is a massive betting favorite over Diana Belbita and with good reason. Belbita is moving up in weight, and while she has decent striking, her power is limited, and she doesn’t have much to speak of for takedown defense or a ground game either. I expect Barbosa to be able to force this one to the ground and bully her way to stoppage victory at some point, most likely via submission.

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Murphy is getting a big test in this one facing Emmett in a five-round matchup, but I expect him to keep his unbeaten record intact. Emmett has a ton of experience and some nasty power for the division, but he’s also 40 years old and coming off a pretty lengthy layoff. Murphy should be able to control the distance, choose his moments, and have the better volume to get this one done on the cards or by KO/TKO.

Finney set a record as the first three-time winner on DWCS before finally earning his UFC contract, and the undefeated prospect should show up ready to make a statement here. Robert Valentin is a dangerous striker but can get a bit reckless and is facing a durable opponent in Finney. I think Finney can weather any early danger and get his wrestling going where he should be able to have his way on the ground for a potential TKO finish or decision win.

Lookboonmee has a favorable matchup in this one against Istela Nunes, who is 0-4 in the UFC and returning from a pretty nasty freak injury to her elbow. Lookboonmee is a solid striker who has also developed some grappling during her 6-2 start with the promotion. I think she’ll be able to largely match Nunes on the feet, and with the ability to also take this to the ground, I think she has a pretty clear path to get a decision or late stoppage win.

From a betting perspective, there really isn’t a ton that I love about this card for straight prop bets, so I took a few small parlay shots, and we’ll see how it goes. The parlays for this one are Barbosa by Submission + Murphy by Decision (+243 boosted on BetMGM to +301 for .5 units), Vanessa Demopoulos ML + Barbosa to Win Inside the Distance + Finney by KO/TKO or Decision Double Chance (+361 for .5 units), and Brad Tavares by Decision + Finney by KO/TKO + Murphy by Decision (+774 for .5 units). That’s three tracked bets for 1.5 units.

I think Demopoulos and Tavares will be able to avoid the submission threats in their respective matchups and should largely be able to control the striking exchanges in their fights to win on the cards. I also have a play coming in that needs McKee ML, Finney ML, and Murphy ML to cash. If both of the plays involving Murphy by Decision advance far enough, I would recommend a small play on Murphy by KO/TKO as a hedge if you don’t have his ML on something.

We’ve had some great luck the past four weeks on the bets, so we’ll see if we can keep the streak going with a pretty tough card in my opinion. Next weekend we have a stacked UFC 314 lineup on deck, so be sure to check back for that one. If you missed our UFC Mexico picks, also stay tuned for some fun announcements coming in the next few weeks involving some upcoming cards and fighters. As always, best of the luck on the bets today and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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