It’s Fight Day for UFC Mexico and we have a really exciting card lined up from Mexico City featuring 13 fights and headlined by a flyweight matchup between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg. Only one fighter missed weight, Ronaldo Rodriguez came in one pound over the flyweight limit and opted for a fine instead of continuing to cut weight.

My favorite picks for this card are Raul Rosas Jr, David Martinez, Brandon Moreno and Joe Pyfer. My favorite potential betting upset is Melquizael Costa on an otherwise pretty chalky card. Be sure to keep the elevation of Mexico City in mind with the bets today as it’s likely going to have an effect on the cardio of at least a few fighters.

Rosas Jr is 4-1 in the UFC and has a chance to set the promotion record for the youngest fighter in UFC history to reach five wins if he gets the job done today against Vince Morales. While Morales has a sizeable experience advantage, he has consistently struggled at the UFC level, and although he might have moments of success, I’m not sure I see a clean path for him here. I expect Rosas to be able to get this one to ground and likely find a submission at some point.

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Martinez has been given an excellent spot to make his UFC debut at home in Mexico against Saimon Oliveira, who is 0-2 in the UFC and coming off a two-year layoff. Martinez is 11-1 with solid striking and nine wins via KO/TKO and should be able to put some big shots on Oliveira. I expect Martinez to get this one done pretty early for his 10th KO/TKO win.

I’ve seen it noted several times this week that Mexican born fighters have struggled to win in the UFC at home going roughly 20-15-1 in those spots. One of the fighters who hasn’t had a ton of success at home is Brandon Moreno, but I think he breaks out a solid performance here over Steve Erceg. He’ll have a sizeable experience advantage, and I think he’ll be better anywhere this fight goes. I expect Moreno to get his one done on the cards.

Joe Pyfer will be going for his fifth UFC win when he faces Kelvin Gastelum at middleweight, and I like his chances of picking up his biggest win to date. Respectfully, Gastelum has no business being at 185 pounds and like he has often found himself in the past, he will be the much smaller guy in this matchup. Pyfer should have the better moments on the feet with the ability to take it to the ground if he wants. I expect Pyfer to get this one done via decision.

For the betting card this weekend, I kept the tracked plays pretty small with one prop bet and three parlays. For the prop bet, I went with Manuel Torres by Submission (+425 for .25 units). The parlays are Costa ML + Pyfer ML + Moreno ML (+348 for .5 units), Costa by Submission or Decision Double Chance + Moreno by Decision (+456 for .5 units) and Martinez by KO/TKO + Pyfer by Decision + Moreno by Decision (+1235 for .5 units). That’s four tracked bets for a total of 1.75 units for the card. I also have a handful of untracked plays going including the following lines: Rosas Jr by Submission, Pyfer/Gastelum Distance – Yes, Ronaldo Rodriguez ML, and Rafa Garcia by Decision.

Overall, this should be a pretty good lineup with a pumped and energetic crowd bringing the energy for the fighters. Hopefully we found some good targets for the bets to go for our fourth straight week in the green on the tracked bets. For those interested, I stepped out of my comfort zone this week for an interview at MILLIONS and gave some early leans for upcoming fights at UFC 314 and UFC 315 if you want my early thoughts on those cards.

Also, congratulations to our sponsored athlete Chris “The Problem” Duncan on a massive win last weekend at UFC London! If you missed it, Chris put on a masterful performance and picked up the win over Jordan Vucenic by second round submission for his fourth UFC victory. We’re extremely proud to announce we’ve extended our commitment to Chris and will be partnering with him moving forward in his career, so stay tuned for plenty of fun things in the future!

As always, best of luck on the bets today and we hope everyone enjoys the fights! Check back next weekend for UFC Vegas 105 and stay tuned for some big announcements in the next few weeks as we have some exciting stuff in the pipeline!

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