It’s fight day for the final numbered card of 2024 as UFC 310 takes place later today in Las Vegas. The card features 14 bouts and will be headlined by a clash between Alexandre Pantoja and Kai Asakura for the UFC Flyweight title. We’re also getting a 5-round co-main event between Shavkat Rakhmonov and Ian Machado Garry that will determine which fighter gets a shot at Belal Muhammad for the UFC Welterweight title.

My favorite picks on this card are Chase Hooper, Bryce Mitchell, Kennedy Nzechukwu and Dominick Reyes.

Hooper will be 17 years younger than his opponent Clay Guida and already has a recent grappling win over the longtime UFC vet. Hooper should be better anywhere this fight goes and love his chances to get this one done inside the distance via submission or ground and pound.

Mitchell is returning from a lengthy layoff after a brutal knockout loss last year to Josh Emmett, but I love this spot for him to bounce back into the win column. Kron Gracie is a dangerous sub artist with no plan B if he can’t find one. Mitchell should be able to remain safe in the grappling to get this one done via decision or KO/TKO down the stretch.

Nzechukwu is 1-0 since moving up to heavyweight and gets another solid matchup against Lukasz Brezski. I expect Kennedy to keep this one on the feet and work his 5″ reach advantage to pick Brezski apart from range for a clear decision or KO/TKO win and move to 2-0 in the heavyweight division.

Reyes emphatically jumped back into the win column with a big KO/TKO win over Dustin Jacoby during the summer and he’s getting a great spot here against Anthony Smith to string together a win streak. Reyes should be better everywhere in this matchup and as long as he avoids getting caught on the feet, he should get this one done via unanimous decision or KO/TKO in the latter rounds.

For the betting card this weekend I’m running a handful of prop bets: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO (+275 for .5 units, +380 for .5 units), Bryce Mitchell by KO/TKO (+600 for .5 units), Dominick Reyes by Unanimous Decision (+450 for .5 units), Chase Hooper by KO/TKO (+650 for .25 units) and Ian Machado Garry by Split/Majority Decision (+1800 for .25 units). That’s six bets out for a total of 2.5 units. I also have a pair of parlays coming in that need Chris Weidman ML and Rakhmonov ML to cash respectively.

I jumped on the Asakura line early and got a bad line, obviously would have preferred having the full unit at +380. While Pantoja has never been stopped, I’m trusting my gut on this one and think Asakura will be able to catch him pretty early in the fight with a massive shot. I also like the chances for Mitchell and/or Hooper to find TKO wins in their respective matchups. For the Garry bet, I’m picking Shavkat in that matchup, but felt obligated to sprinkle this one at +1800 because I feel like this is Garry’s best path to getting a win in this fight if he pulls it off.

Overall, I expect this to be a really fun card tonight with a lot of great fights from top to bottom. Keep in mind that fighters will be using the old gloves again, so hopefully we’ll see some big knockouts as a result. Next weekend is the final UFC event of the year with Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley set to headline UFC Tampa, so be sure to come back for picks and bets on that one. Hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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