We’re back this weekend with a loaded UFC 309 card from Madison Square Garden in New York City featuring the highly anticipated matchup between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic for the UFC Heavyweight title that was originally scheduled for last year. The card features 13 matchups and also features what will likely be a title eliminator in the lightweight division when Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler meet in the co-main event for a rematch.

My favorite picks on this card are Jon Jones, Bo Nickal, Mauricio Ruffy and Jonathan Martinez. Jones will attempt to make the first defense of his heavyweight title, and I love the matchup here against Miocic. Stipe hasn’t fought in over three years and is coming off a brutal KO loss to Francis Ngannou. I think Jones will be able to find success with his wrestling and be able to mix his wide array of weapons to get this one done via decision or late TKO stoppage.

Nickal is getting a dangerous opponent that is a big step up in competition when he faces Paul Craig, but this is another matchup that I really like. Nickal will have to be careful to avoid the constant submission threat from Craig, but I expect Nickal to have a dominate advantage in the wrestling and like his chances to find the back of Craig in a scramble for a submission win of his own sometime in the first two rounds.

Mauricio Ruffy’s matchup with James Llontop was moved to a 165 lb catchweight bout mid-week and then Llontop still managed to miss weight yesterday by 1.2 pounds. That’s a giant red flag in my book and I already loved Ruffy in this spot. Ruffy has a 100% KO/TKO rate in his wins, and I like his chances to keep that intact here against Llontop, especially if there’s an injury involved on the Llontop side coming into the bout.

Martinez vs McGhee should be one of the more entertaining fights on the card between two dangerous strikers in the bantamweight division. While McGhee has looked phenomenal so far during his 3-0 start with the promotion, this a huge step up and tough matchup in my opinion. Martinez should be able to stay safe early and extend this fight out where he will likely have an advantage down the stretch. I think Martinez will chop at the legs to slow and nullify the power coming from McGhee to get this one done on the cards in a fun fight.

For the betting card this weekend, I’m running a handful of prop bets and a play on Michael Chandler’s money line (+230 for .5 units). The prop bets are the following: Martinez by Decision (+250 for .5 units), Bo Nickal by Submission (+210 for .5 units), Chandler by KO/TKO (+400 for .5 units) and Jones by Decision (+450 for .5 units). That’s five plays out on the tracked bets for a total of 2.5 units.

While Charles Oliveira is rarely an easy out and Chandler has been on the shelf for a while after waiting for the ill-fated Conor McGregor fight that never materialized, I really like Mike’s chances in this one to find a big shot early that Oliveira can’t recover from. I also have a handful of plays coming into the card that need the following lines to cash: Ruffy by KO/TKO, Chandler ML, Jones to Win by KO/TKO or Decision Double Chance, and Jones by Decision.

Overall, this should be a pretty exciting card with an energetic crowd in the Garden. It’s also worth noting that the promotion switched gloves for this event, moving back to the old gloves that had been used prior to June. According to Dana White, the change back will be permanent, so it will be interesting to see if we get any kind of immediate jump in finish rates with the swap. Best of luck to everyone on their bets and enjoy the fights!

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