We’re back today with an action-packed card from the Apex with UFC Vegas 99. The lineup features 11 matchups and will be headlined by a middleweight clash between Anthony Hernandez and Michel Pereira. This is a sneaky good card for the Apex, particularly the top half of it, and there should be a handful of fun fights to get us prepped for UFC 308 next weekend. Joselyne Edwards was the only fighter to miss weight this week, initially weighing in 3.5 pounds over the women’s bantamweight limit before coming in 3 pounds over in her second attempt. She was fined 25% of her fight purse and her bout with Tamires Vidal will proceed.

My favorite picks for this card are Kyler Phillips, Charles Johnson, Joselyne Edwards and Robelis Despaigne. Phillips is 6-1 in the UFC and riding a 3-fight winning streak heading into his co-main event matchup with Rob Font. While Font is a dangerous striker on the feet and has been very durable, he’s accumulated a lot of damage while dropping 4 of his last 5 bouts by decision. Phillips is 8 years younger and should be able to get this one done comfortably on the cards or possibly even by stoppage down the stretch. Johnson continues an active 2024 campaign with a matchup against Sumudaerji, who drops down to flyweight for this one. While Johnson has a tendency to sometimes starts slowly in the first round, I think he’ll be able to pick up the last two rounds on the scorecards here for a decision over Sumudaerji and also has a chance to find a sub down the stretch, which is how Sumudaerji has lost in all six of his career losses.

While I never love seeing my picks miss weight, I’m not particularly surprised to see Edwards struggle to make the mark at 135 as this is her third miss in the UFC. However, she is 2-0 when she has missed and should still be able to take advantage of a favorable matchup here with Vidal, who has not looked great at the UFC level outside of a quick KO in her debut. I expect Edwards to get this one done on the cards. Despaigne is coming off his first loss in his last bout when he was finally extended into deeper waters. I don’t think Austin Lane will be able to have similar success in this one surviving the early barrage that Despaigne will bring. Lane has been stopped by KO/TKO in all 5 of his career losses and I expect Robelis to add another one to the tally in the opening minutes.

For the betting card this week, I’m keeping things pretty light with four prop bets: Matheus Nicolau by Decision (+300 for .5 units), Nicolau by Split/Majority Decision (+700 for .25 units), Point Deduction – Yes for Pereira/Hernandez (+2000 for .25 units), and Despaigne by KO/TKO + Under 179.5 seconds SGP (+220 for .5 units). It sounds funny to say, but Nicolau is 19-0-1 when he doesn’t end up on the wrong side of a KO/TKO. I don’t think Assu Almabayev has the power to get one in this matchup and with Nicolau’s 93% TD defense to keep this standing, I expect it to be a close fight that goes to the cards. The Point Deduction is a rare play for me but felt like an obligation in this matchup. Pereira is one of the most reckless fighters on the roster, and even with referees slow to pull the trigger on deductions these days, there’s a very real chance we see Pereira throw something reckless the longer this fight goes.

That’s four tracked bets for a total of 1.5 units. I also have two lines on a parlay coming in that I need to cash a ticket, which are Charles Johnson ML and Under 2.5 rounds for the main event. I also played Francis Ngannou to Win in R1/2 + Trey Sermon Anytime TD (Colts) as a PFL/NFL combo play for .5 units at +275. Ngannou makes his return to the cage later today for PFL, and I think he has at least one more statement finish in the tank. I ultimately passed on betting Kyler Phillips as I’ll be using him as my pick in my UFC survivor pool this week, so I’ll be hedging my entry fee on Font most likely. Otherwise, I considered his Decision prop, as well as to win by KO/TKO in R2/3 as potential plays for that fight.

Overall, this should be a really fun card and I’m particularly excited to see the top three matchups on it. Next weekend is an early start time for UFC 308 here in the US, so I will do my best to have everything posted Friday night for that card. That event will be headlined by Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway for the UFC Featherweight title in Abu Dhabi and features a very deep lineup that should be a lot of fun. Best of luck to everyone on the bets and enjoy the fights!

If you have time, check out my first ever interview available exclusively on MILLIONS with their founder and CEO Matt Whitteker! This is a can’t miss interview for athletes, gym owners, promotors, content creators and anyone else involved in the world of sports, so be sure to check out what Matt had to say about all of the amazing things that MILLIONS offers!

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