We’re back with UFC 307 today headlined by a pair of title fights in Salt Lake City. In the main event, Alex Pereira will attempt to make his third defense of the UFC Light Heavyweight title in less than six months when he faces Khalil Rountree Jr. If he’s successful, Pereira will set the new record for the shortest amount of time between three title defenses in the UFC. In the co-main event, UFC Bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington will look to defend her title against former champion Julianna Pennington. There are twelve fights total on this card and thankfully there were no issues yesterday during weigh-ins for the event.

My favorite picks on this one are Kayla Harrison, Alex Pereira, Cesar Almeida and Joaquin Buckley. Harrison and Ketlen Vieira are almost definitely in a title eliminator here and I think this one is actually going to be pretty competitive. Vieira has high level BJJ and judo to match Harrison, but I think Kayla will be the one causing more damage in this fight to get the win on the cards or via late KO/TKO. Pereira and Rountree Jr should be a very fun fight between two of the most dangerous fighters in the division. Both possess one hit knockout power and are very capable of mixing up their weapons to find it. I think we could see a relatively slow and reserved start from both fighters early before opening things up more in the middle rounds. While a KO/TKO is possible pretty much from the start on either side, I’m actually liking this fight to go into the championship rounds and possibly to decision. I think Alex will use his experience and control range in this one to land some big shots to get this one on the cards or by late KO/TKO if Rountree’s cardio doesn’t hold up.

Cesar Almeida and Ihor Potieria was pegged by Dana White this week as one of his “if you don’t know, now you know” fights for the card and it’s easy to understand why. Both of these guys throw heavy and look for the finish from the opening bell. While both are dangerous strikers, Almeida should be the more technical of the two and also has shown a much better chin in his career. I like Almeida’s chances of cracking Potieria sometime in the first two rounds for the KO/TKO finish. Buckley vs Stephen Thompson was the second fight White chose in the previously mentioned video of ones you don’t want to miss tonight, and I definitely see it being an exciting one. Thompson is one of the most talented strikers in the division and will be live to catch Buckley on the feet. However, Buckley has shown a lot of improvement overall recently in his 4-fight win streak and will almost certainly try to get this one on the ground early and often. I think Buckley will be able to avoid the big shots from Wonderboy and get this one done on the cards.

For the betting card today, I have a couple of small parlays and few prop bets out. For the parlays: Almeida to win by KO/TKO Under 10.5 Min SGP + Pena ML (+422 for .5 units) and Almeida by KO/TKO + Garrett Wilson Anytime TD (+308 for .5 units). The Wilson TD line is for the Jets/Vikings NFL game in the morning, feel free to swap it out with another line at a similar number if you prefer (around +130 when I placed). The prop bets: Pereira by Decision (+900 for .5 units), Mario Bautista by Split/Majority Decision (+550 for .25 units), Roman Dolidze by Decision (+225 for .5 units), Carla Esparza by Submission (+2500 for .25 units) and Esparza by R2/3 Submission (+3900 for .25 units). As I mentioned, I like the Pereira/Rountree Jr fight to drag on for a bit, and I also have two untracked parlays out needing Pereira to win Ov1.5 Rounds and in R4/5/Decision to cash those. Like a lot of fights on this card, I expect Bautista and Jose Aldo to have a close and competitive fight that ends on the cards. For the Esparza bets, I’m really trusting my gut on those but ultimately couldn’t pass on the value here. While Esparza only has one submission win in the UFC, she has won 5/19 overall in her career via that method with 3/5 in the latter rounds. In what will be her final octagon appearance, I felt this one was worth taking a shot. That’s a total of 2.75 units out across the seven tracked bets.

Overall, this should be a pretty fun card to kick things off for October. After this one, we’ll have UFC Vegas 98 and 99 before ending the month with UFC 308 in Abu Dhabi. Let us know which fights you’re looking forward to tonight down below in the comments and be sure to check our social media accounts throughout the day for any late additions to the betting card. We hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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