It’s Fight Day for UFC 305 from Perth, Australia and we should be in for a treat with this one. The headliner features a UFC Middleweight title matchup between Dricus du Plessis and Israel Adesanya that has been brewing for over a year now. Du Plessis will be attempting to make the first defense of his title while Adesanya has a chance to become a three-time division champion with a win. Beyond the main event, there’s a handful of other interesting matchups including a high-stakes bout at flyweight in the co-main event between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg.

My favorite picks for this weekend are Jack Jenkins, Tom Nolan, Song Kenan and Mateusz Gamrot. Jenkins will be looking to bounce back from an injury TKO loss in his last outing and gets a great spot to get back into the win column against Herbert Burns. While Burns is a dangerous submission threat early in fights, he’s shown multiple times now his cardio is questionable at best beyond that opening round, and he can also be picked apart with strikes as he gasses. I think Jenkins will weather that early threat and piece Burns up for a KO/TKO down the stretch or a clear decision if Burns survives to the cards. I’m also really liking Tom Nolan in his matchup against Alex Reyes, who is 0-2 in the UFC with two first round losses by KO/TKO. Nolan has 5 KO/TKO victories in his 7 career wins, and I think he adds another one here.

Song is another fighter early in the card with a very favorable matchup as he catches Ricky Glenn moving up to welterweight. While Song has been on a rough stretch dropping three of his past four fights, I think this an excellent spot to bounce back. Glenn has only won one fight in the last six years, has been stopped in half of his eight career losses and is unlikely to look better up a weight class. Song should get this one done via clear decision or KO/TKO. Gamrot has the toughest matchup of the four going up against Dan Hooker, but I think his wrestling will be enough to get the job done in this one. While Hooker will likely be the better striker, I’m not confident he stays upright long enough here to really get going. He’s also pretty hittable and can get cracked himself, making it harder to trust him to steal rounds off one or two big shots, although it’s still possible. I think Gamrot will get this one done via decision.

I have six bets out heading into the card with three props and three parlays. The prop bets for today’s card: Jenkins to Win in R3/Decision (+220 for .5 units), Tai Tuivasa to Win by R1 KO/TKO (+425 for .5 units), and Gamrot/Hooker to End by Split/Majority Decision (+375 for .5 units). The parlays for the card: Tuivasa ML + Adesanya ML (+395 for .5 units), Song ML + Adesanya to Win in R4/5/Decision (+303 for .5 units) and Jenkins by KO/TKO or Decision Double Chance + Song ML + Culibao ML + Gamrot by Decision (+609 for .5 units, played with FanDuel’s 25% parlay boost). I liked the Adesanya pick and bets earlier in the week, but I still think he gets the job done tonight against du Plessis. I also think there’s a good chance Tuivasa gets back on track in this one, so I took a couple of shots involving him. If the parlays advance, pretty easy hedge spots on Hooker and du Plessis if they’re needed. That’s a total of six bets out for 3 units overall.

It should be a pretty fun night overall, let us know down below in the comments who you’re picking in the main event and what bets you’re rocking with tonight. Best of luck to all the bettors and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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