We’re back today for UFC Vegas 95 at the Apex, and despite a few weigh-in misses yesterday and a small lineup with only ten fights, it should still be a pretty fun card overall. The main event features a heavyweight rematch between Marcin Tybura and Sergei Spivac that likely won’t have much effect on the title picture in the division but should keep the winner firmly in the top ten. There were three weight misses yesterday for the card: Danny Barlow was 0.25 lb over, Chepe Mariscal was 3.5 lb over and Chelsea Chandler was a whopping 5 lb over the limit. All three bouts involving those fighters have remained intact and are still scheduled to proceed.

My favorite picks for this card are Danny Barlow, Karl Williams, Chris Gutierrez and Youssef Zalal. Barlow is making his second trip to the octagon after an impressive debut showing back in February and will be facing Nikolay Veretennikov, who took this fight on short notice and will be debuting. Barlow has nasty power in his striking and has already shown the ability to dig deep when he fought into the third round and won with a broken forearm in his debut. I think Veretennikov will be competitive early in this one, but Barlow should pull away as the fight progresses for a clear decision or KO/TKO down the stretch. Williams is 3-0 in the UFC, and despite drawing a dangerous opponent in this one with Jhonata Diniz, I think he has a very clear path to victory via takedowns and grappling. Diniz struggled in his debut against Austin Lane when he was put on the ground, and I expect we see more of that in this one as Williams is a far better wrestler than Lane. I like Williams via decision or late TKO if he can wear out the cardio of Diniz.

Chris Gutierrez is catching a bit of a break getting to face Quang Le, who is debuting on extremely short notice to replace Javid Basharat. Gutierrez is a dangerous striker who is very capable of mixing up his weapons and he’ll be a huge step up in competition for Le. I expect Gutierrez to get this one done comfortably on the cards or potentially even by stoppage. Youssef Zalal looked excellent in his return to the promotion when he beat Billy Quarantillo, and I think this is a very favorable matchup for him against Jarno Errens. Zalal should be the better grappler in this matchup and be able to dictate where this one takes place, and I like his chances of getting this one done via submission or clear decision.

I’m not running a lot this weekend on the betting card with one prop bet and a few small parlays, one of which carries over into UFC 305 next weekend. The prop bet that I took on this one is Danny Barlow by Unanimous Decision (+240 for .5 units). Veretennikov has only been stopped via KO/TKO one time in his career and his only loss in the last decade was to Michael Morales on DWCS. While Barlow should prove to be the better fighter and win this one rather convincingly, I think Veretennikov will stick around and survive to a decision loss. The parlays for this card: Barlow by Decision + Damon Jackson ML (+702 for .5 units), Zalal -3.5 Point Spread + Williams by KO or Decision Double Chance + Barlow -3.5 Point Spread (+303 for .5 units) and Alencar +3.5 Point Spread + Williams ML + Barlow ML + Adesanya ML (+397 for .5 units). I tried to cover myself on the Barlow decision plays by running his ML and point spread, which both cover a win via stoppage just in case, as well as mixed in some other spots that I like on this card. I also tacked on Israel Adesanya as the final line for one in his main event bout with Dricus Du Plessis next weekend. I’m going with Adesanya in that one as of now but can always cash out or hedge should that change during fight week.

That’s a total of 2 units out across four bets for today’s card. Be sure to let us know down below in the comments who you’re riding with on this card and what bets that you’re liking for this weekend! Best of luck to all of the bettors and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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