It’s fight day for UFC Abu Dhabi and we have an early fight day here in the US with prelims for the card starting at 12PM ET. The event features 13 bouts and will be headlined by a bantamweight clash between Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov. This matchup was originally scheduled for UFC Nashville last year and will likely weigh heavily in the title picture to decide the next contender for the belt. It’s a pretty good lineup from top to bottom with a lot of potential to see some stoppages today.

My favorite picks for this card are Umar Nurmagomedov, Sedriques Dumas, Shara Magomedov and Azamat Murzakanov. Nurmagomedov has been on a tear so far in the UFC, and while this is a massive step up in competition, I expect he’s going to surprise some people with how well he meets the challenge. Sandhagen is one of the best bantamweights on the planet, but I think Nurmagomedov will land his takedowns and potentially even find a submission during the fight. I love the matchup for Dumas against Denis Tiuliulin in this spot and think there’s an excellent chance he puts him away inside the distance. Tiuliulin is extremely hittable and has been stopped in seven of his nine losses.

Magomedov vs Olekseijchuk might end up being one of the best fights of the night between two guys who love to stand and bang. I trust the durability a bit more for Magomedov in this spot and think he’s the more likely of the two to get his hand raised on a decision if he doesn’t find a stoppage first. Murzakanov is off to a 3-0 start in his UFC run over some pretty decent competition and I love this spot for him catching Alonzo Menifield on a pretty quick turnaround after a nasty first round TKO loss to Carlos Ulberg in May. I think Murzakanov will have the power to put Menifield out relatively early in this matchup.

For the betting card this weekend, keeping things pretty simple with two prop bets and three parlays. The two prop bets: Tony Ferguson by Decision (+1200 for .25 units) and Marlon Vera to Win by Split/Majority Decision (+650 for .25 units). The parlays for this week: Nurmagomedov ML + Ferguson ML (+623 for .5 units), Dumas ML + Ferguson ML (+675 for .5 units) and Murzakanov ML + Magomedov by Decision + Nurmagomedov ML (+709 for .5 units). Going in heavy on Ferguson this card despite the well documented struggles of the past few years. I think there’s just enough in the tank for him to squeeze out a win against Michael Chiesa, who has also been on the downswing as of late. This is Ferguson’s most winnable matchup in a while in my opinion, and I think he capitalizes on it. Also, I’m expecting Vera vs Figueiredo to be a very close fight that goes to the cards, so decided to sprinkle on the underdog by split. That’s a total of five bets for 2.5 units out this week. Best of luck to everyone on their bests and enjoy the fights!

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