We’re back later today with UFC 304 taking place in Manchester, England and this is by far the best lineup that we’ve gotten this month from top to bottom. The event will be headlined by two title fights that also happen to be rematches: Leon Edwards attempts to defend his UFC Welterweight title in the main event against Belal Muhammad, while Tom Aspinall will try to defend his UFC Interim Heavyweight title against Curtis Blaydes in the co-main. Both of the original matchups had strange endings (Eye poke No Contest for Belal/Leon and an immediate knee injury for Aspinall), so hopefully we’ll actually get to see both fights play out tonight in full. The card is loaded with British and European talent so I expect the crowd to be pretty energetic for this one also, although it will be interesting the longer the card goes since it will end around 6 AM local time in Manchester.

My favorite picks this weekend are Tom Aspinall, Mick Parkin, Arnold Allen and Muhammad Mokaev. Outside of the freak knee injury in their first meeting, Aspinall has looked exceptional in the UFC thus far and I think he’ll continue that path tonight against Blaydes. While Curtis is one of the best athletes in the division, he’s been stopped in all four of his losses and that’s a bad recipe against Aspinall. Whether on the feet or on the ground, I expect Aspinall to be the more dangerous fighter in this one and think he’ll get the job done relatively early in the first two rounds. Parkin, who is a training partner of Aspinall, gets an excellent matchup in my opinion against Lukasz Brzeski and I think he’ll be very live to pick up his first stoppage win in the UFC. Brzeski has been largely underwhelming at the UFC level, while Parkin has started out 3-0 to push his overall win streak to 16 straight fights dating back to his amateur career.

Arnold Allen is coming off back-to-back tough outings, but I really like this spot for him against Giga Chikadze. Both fighters are dangerous strikers on the feet, however, I trust Allen to be able to switch things up and get this one to the ground if necessary. This should be one of the most entertaining fights on the card and I think Allen picks up the win with a decision. Muhammad Mokaev and Manel Kape have had an explosive fight week that has seen multiple minor altercations between the two and their camps. There is a ton of animosity in this one and it could end up stealing the show. Kape will definitely be the better striker and more dangerous of the two on the feet, but I think he’s going to have trouble staying upright. While it might not be the most thrilling style, Mokaev has shown he can dig deep and grind out just about anyone with his wrestling and submission game. I think he’ll get this one done via submission or decision.

For the betting card this weekend, I have a handful of small/medium parlays along with a few prop bets. The parlays for tonight are Parkin ML + Pimblett ML + Aspinall ML (+240 for .5 units), Patterson to Win in R1/2 + Mokaev by Sub or Decision Double Chance + Pimblett ML (+398 for .5 units), and Mokaev to Win in R3/Dec + Allen ML + Pimblett ML + Aspinall Inside the Distance (+767 for .5 units, boosted on DraftKings). The prop bets are: Aspinall by Submission (+500 for .5 units), Pimblett to win in R3/Dec (+210 for.5 units), Pimblett by Submission in R2/3 (+1100 for .25 units), and Parkin Inside the Distance (+200 for .5 units). That’s a total of seven plays for 3.25 units. Loaded up a little heavy on Paddy Pimblett in his matchup with King Green, but absolutely love the spot for him and we can hedge out the parlays on Green if necessary assuming they advance. Best of luck on the bets tonight and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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