The UFC is returning to the home of their inaugural event tonight when they host UFC Denver. The card features 12 bouts and will be headlined by a women’s flyweight matchup between Rose Namajunas and Tracy Cortez. As has been a common theme with recent cards, there were a ton of cancellations and late matchups added to this one over the past couple of weeks, but it has shaped up to be a pretty solid card on paper given the circumstances. There were no weight misses yesterday at the official weigh-in, although Tracy Cortez had to chop some hair to get under the limit in a move that deserves a lot of credit. Way too many fighters have seemingly gotten comfortable with missing weight, so it’s always refreshing to see someone who goes the extra mile to get under after an initial miss.

My favorite picks for this card are Rose Namajunas, Gabriel Bonfim, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Drew Dober. Namajunas is a former two-time UFC champ with a wealth of five-round experience, while this will be Cortez’s first main event with the promotion. Considering the card is at altitude, that could be an issue for Cortez down the stretch after a seemingly less-than-ideal weight cut. Namajunas is from the area, so I don’t expect the altitude to have much effect on her, and she should be able to win a comfortable decision or find a late stoppage if Cortez gasses out. Speaking of gassing out, I still have nightmares about the tickets Gabriel Bonfim cost me in his last fight when he death-gassed in the second round against Nicholas Dalby back in November. While normally that would scare me away, I’ll be taking another chance on Bonfim in this matchup with Ange Loosa. Bonfim has a 100% finish rate in his wins and is nasty with his submissions. Loosa lacks the experience and high-level submission defense that allowed Dalby to stay calm and survive into the second round. Bonfim should be able to catch Loosa early in this one and get him out of there with via a choke in the first.

In the co-main event between Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov, it’s pretty clear both of these fighters are on the back end of their runs with the promotion. However, I think Ponzinibbio will prove to have more left in the tank in this one. Salikhov is 40 years old and has been stopped in 4 of his 5 losses, neither of which bode well at altitude against the power and striking of Ponzinibbio. I expect the “Argentine Dagger” to get this one done via KO/TKO or decision. The matchup between Dober and Jean Silva could be one of the most entertaining fights of the night. Silva is making an ultra-fast turnaround after a KO/TKO win over Charles Jourdain two weeks ago at UFC 303. While Silva has displayed some nasty power so far in his UFC run, going up in weight to face Dober will be difficult. Dober is from the region and on a full camp, so as long as he doesn’t get caught early, I expect him to be able to get this one done down the stretch or on the cards.

For the betting card this week, keeping things fairly tight targeting the few spots that I really liked the most with three prop bets and three small parlays. The prop bets for this card: Van/Johnson to End by Split/Majority Decision – Yes (+250 for .5 units), Gabriel Bonfim by Sub in R1 (+360 for .5 units) and Drew Dober by Decision (+325). The parlays that I have out include Dober ML + Namajunas ML (+180 for 1 unit), Bonfim to Win Under 1.5R + Dober ML + Namajunas ML (+535 for .5 units) and Dober ML + Ponzinibbio -3.5 point spread + Namajunas ML (+450 for .5 units). That’s six bets out for a total of 3.5 units. Van/Johnson should be an extremely fun and close matchup that I see going to the cards at a pretty high clip, I definitely wouldn’t be shocked to see a close decision there. And as previously noted, with Bonfim’s cardio and gas tank questionable at best, I wouldn’t recommend playing his ML or including him in too many parlays. Best of luck to everyone of their bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights tonight! Check back next weekend for UFC Vegas 94.

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