We have a fun one on the way tonight with UFC 303 capping off International Fight Week out in Las Vegas. While there’s surely some disappointed fans out there since Conor McGregor won’t be returning on the card as originally planned, the lineup arguably improved after a litany of changes leading into the event. The rematch between Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka for the UFC Light Heavyweight title should be absolute fireworks and there’s a handful of other fun matchups as well including Ortega/Lopes, Garry/Page and Talbott/Ghemmouri.

My favorite picks on this card are Ian Machado Garry, Payton Talbott, Joe Pyfer and Brian Ortega. Garry and Michael “Venom” Page are both great strikers with knockout ability, and although MVP looked excellent in his debut with the promotion against Kevin Holland at UFC 299, I love Garry in this spot. Page was able to bother Holland and throw him off his game with his odd fighting style, whereas I don’t think he’ll be as successful with that here. Garry will likely still pour on the volume in the striking and can also change levels if he’s in trouble on the feet. I expect Garry to get this one done on the scorecards via decision. Talbott is one of the hottest prospects in the UFC bantamweight division right now and heads into the card as a massive betting favorite over Yanis Ghemmouri. It’ll be interesting to see how Ghemmouri looks moving down to bantamweight, but regardless, I think Talbott is the all-around better fighter and should be able to get this one done rather comfortably with a good chance of finding a stoppage.

While Joe Pyfer is coming off his first loss with the promotion, he gained invaluable experience in his five-round decision loss to Jack Hermannson earlier this year and showed he can go a hard 25 minutes. This matchup with Marc-Andre Barriault is a sizable step back for Pyfer and I think it’s a great spot for him to bounce back as well. Pyfer should have more power in the striking exchanges and will also be the more dangerous fighter on the ground should the fight go there. I like Pyfer via finish or pretty clear decision in this fight. I rarely add betting underdogs in my most confident picks, but I really like this matchup for Brian Ortega against Diego Lopes. Ortega overcame an absolute nightmare start in his last fight to pick up a submission win over Yair Rodriguez, while Lopes enters on a three-fight win streak with all of them coming via stoppage. I expect Lopes to potentially have some success early, but I think this fight swings in Ortega’s favor the longer it goes due to his experience. Both of these fighters are excellent submission artists and I think that threat will largely cancel out. We’ve seen Lopes be grinded out in decisions before against Movsar Evloev and Joanderson Brito, and I expect much the same in this matchup with Ortega.

For the betting card this weekend, I have two prop bets and a few parlays out. The prop bets: Mayra Bueno Silva by Submission (+310 for .5 units) and Brian Ortega by Decision (+380 for .5 units). I think the line is off on MBS by sub since it’s her clearest route to winning this fight with Macy Chiasson and we’ve seen her be submitted before as well. The parlays for tonight: Ian Machado Garry ML + Ortega ML (+274 for 1 unit), Joe Pyfer ML + Garry ML + Ov1.5 Rounds for Pereira/Prochazka (+280 for .5 units), Garry ML + Ortega ML + Ov1.5 Rounds for Pereira/Prochazka (+488 for .5 units) and Garry by Decision + Ortega ML + Pereira/Prochazka to Start R2 (+905 for .5 units – 30% FanDuel boost, +699 without). I don’t have a great read on the winner for the main event, but I do expect it to last a while and would be pretty surprised if we get a quick finish. However, the parlays including the lines for that fight can still be hedged with Fight Ends in R1 and/or Under 1.5 Rounds if needed. That’s a total of six bets for 3.5 units out for tonight on the tracked card. I’m also running a longshot parlay on this one that I’m posting below. Remove or swap any lines you don’t like; I played this one on DraftKings with their UFC parlay promo. Best of luck on the bets and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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