It’s officially fight day for UFC Saudi Arabia, and we have an early start time here in the US for this one with prelims starting at 12PM ET. This will be the first event held in the country by the UFC, and despite a lot of late changes and cancellations leading into it, the lineup is still very solid for a Fight Night card. Robert Whittaker is a taking on a big risk in the main event facing rising middleweight prospect Ikram Aliskerov. Whittaker was originally scheduled to face Khamzat Chimaev in this matchup, however, Aliskerov stepped in late last week as a replacement. In the co-main event, Sergei Pavlovich will attempt to bounce back against long-time UFC veteran and former training partner Alexander Volkov. Kelvin Gastelum and Daniel Rodriguez’s matchup was moved to middleweight during fight week which could prove notable. In a bit of a pleasant surprise, there were no misses during the weigh-in yesterday for the event.

My favorite picks for this card are Robert Whittaker, Shara Magomedov, Nasrat Haqparast and Johnny Walker. I use the term “favorite” pretty loosely this week because I don’t particularly love any of these spots and they all carry a bit more risk than I usually prefer for this section. Whittaker obviously has a huge experience advantage over Aliskerov, who is only making his third walk to the octagon. However, we’ve also seen Whittaker’s chin be suspect in the past, which could be a problem in this one in the early going. As long as Whittaker avoids that early KO threat, he should have the better cardio and style to win minutes and rounds late. I like Whittaker by decision or late KO/TKO if Aliskerov starts to gas. I preferred Magomedov’s previously scheduled matchup better, particularly the betting lines for it, but I still think he gets the job done in this fight against Antonio Trocoli, who is finally making his UFC debut after several previous attempts. I expect Magomedov to likely get this win via early KO/TKO or decision.

Haqparast will be facing Jared Gordon in the featured prelim in what should be a fun fight. While Gordon has a path if he can work his takedowns, I expect Haqparast to largely keep this one on the feet where he will be the much the better striker in my opinion. I think Haqparast will pour on the volume and eventually catch Gordon for his fifth career KO/TKO loss. Walker is another fighter who has shown a suspect chin at times in the past, but he’s going to have a noticeable size advantage in this one against Volkan Oezdemir and I think he’ll be the first to connect big in what should be a pretty quick fight. I expect Walker to pick up the win early in this one during the first two rounds.

For the official betting card this weekend, I have five plays out total with two parlays and three prop bets. The parlays: Naimov ML + Haqparast ML + Whittaker ML (+358 for .5 units) and Walker to Win in R1/2 + Magomedov by KO/TKO in R1/2 (+466 for .5 units). The prop bets: Haqparast by KO/TKO (+250 for .75 units), Rodriguez by KO/TKO (+1100 for .25 units) and Volkov by KO/TKO (+350 for .5 units). The Rodriguez play is mostly a sprinkle on the off chance that Kelvin Gastelum is entering this fight with an injury since he had to request the matchup be moved to middleweight. I’m still picking Gastelum to probably win a decision as he’s more likely just being unprofessional but felt obligated to play that one. I got a bad line on the Volkov KO/TKO play and it can be had for much better right now, but I think he’ll be very live to put Pavlovich out down the stretch in this one, or even early during a wild exchange. I also need Whittaker’s ML to cash a play I had coming into this card, so assuming Naimov and Haqparast both win, I’ll probably sprinkle on Aliskerov by early KO/TKO as a hedge. After a rough night at the office last weekend with UFC Vegas 93, hopefully we’ll have some better luck on this one. I hope everyone enjoys the fights and best of luck on the bets!

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