The octagon returns to Newark, New Jersey tonight for UFC 302 headlined by a clash between Islam Makhachev and Dustin Poirier for the UFC Lightweight title. The event features 12 fights, but none will have higher stakes than this one. Makhachev has a chance to extend his UFC winning streak to 14 fights, which would surpass Khabib Nurmagomedov’s streak of 13 straight with the promotion. Meanwhile, in what could be Poirier’s final trip to the octagon, he will be attempting to claim undisputed gold for the first time in his third opportunity at the title. The co-main event features a high stakes matchup in the middleweight division as Sean Strickland attempts to defend his #1 ranking against Paulo Costa in what should be a fun fight.

My favorite picks for this card are Islam Makhachev, Kevin Holland, Jailton Almeida and Alex Morono. While I’ll be vigorously cheering for The Diamond to pull off an all-time upset tonight, there’s just no clear and consistent path to victory for him in this one in my opinion. I don’t think he’ll be able to stop the wrestling of Makhachev and have a feeling this ends similarly to his first two attempts at undisputed gold where he ended up on the wrong side of an RNC. Holland is moving back up to middleweight for this one against Michal Olekseijchuk, and while I’m not sure I love that move long-term for him, I do like this matchup. Holland is the more well-rounded fighter with the durability to strike with Olekseijchuk and ability to get him to the ground if necessary. I think Holland can get this one done inside the distance.

I also really like Jailton Almeida’s chances to bounce back into the win column against Alexandr Romanov. Almeida ran into a roadblock at UFC 299 on the wrong side of a TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes, but he should be able to outwrestle and wear down the cardio of Romanov here. I think Almeida can get him out down the stretch and will pick up a pretty clear decision if he doesn’t find the stoppage. Morono and Niko Price are having a rematch from nearly 7 years ago, and while the first one went to Price via TKO before ultimately being ruled a No Contest, I expect a different result in this one. Morono had success and dropped Price in the first matchup and has looked much better in recent years. This feels like his fight to lose, and I expect him to get the win inside the distance.

For the betting card this weekend, I have four bets on the official card with one parlay and three props. The parlay for this one is Kevin Holland ML + Paulo Costa ML + Islam by Sub/Dec Double Chance (+469 for .5 units). The three prop bets that I have out: Cesar Almeida by Decision (+250 for .5 units), Jailton Almeida by KO/TKO in R2/3 (+900 for .25 units) and Paulo Costa by Decision (+1100 for .25 units). That’s a total of 1.5 units across the four bets. I will probably be running a couple more late additions, so keep an eye on our social accounts for any of those. I’m also attaching the long-shot parlay that I’m running for tonight down below that I played on DraftKings with their UFC boost. If this one advances past the first two legs (the Almeida’s), I plan to place a small hedge on Holland by Decision just in case he doesn’t find the stoppage. Best of luck to everyone on their bets tonight and hope everyone enjoys the fights!

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