The biggest card in UFC history is on the horizon with UFC 300 taking place tomorrow in Las Vegas, Nevada at the T-Mobile Arena. This is without a doubt one of the most talent-stacked cards the promotion has ever put together, featuring 12 current or former undisputed or interim champions on the lineup out of the 26 total fighters competing. The event will be headlined by a clash between Alex Pereira (C) and Jamahal Hill for the UFC Light Heavyweight title and also features two more title fights: Zhang Weili (C) vs Yan Xiaonan for the UFC Strawweight title and Justin Gaethje (C) vs Max Holloway for the BMF title. As if this card wasn’t already going to be exciting enough, Dana White announced at the press conference last night that bonuses for the event would be increased from the usual $50k to $300k to add even more incentive for the fighters to show out. Not surprisingly, all 26 fighters successfully made weight for this one.

Since this card is so big and stacked from top to bottom, I’ll be giving quick thoughts on how I think each fight might play out followed by my favorite picks and full betting card down below:

Figueiredo/Garbrandt – Excellent matchup to open the card between two former champs. Deiveson Figueiredo looked impressive in his first fight at bantamweight against Rob Font, and although Cody Garbrandt has looked fairly solid in his last couple of outings as well, this will be a sizable step up in competition from those opponents. The opening round of this one should be a lot of fun and could be close, but I expect Figgy to keep things rolling in his move to 135 and eventually catch Garbrandt in an exchange for a TKO/KO victory in this one.

Miller/Green – Jim Miller will make history as the only fighter to compete at UFC 100, 200 and 300 when he faces Bobby Green. While I initially was leaning towards Green in this matchup, I just can’t overlook the damage he took in his last fight with Jalin Turner. Miller hasn’t faced the same level of competition as Green lately, but he has looked excellent against the fighters that he has faced while winning 5 of his last 6. I think there’s a good chance Miller can hold his own with Green and pull the slight upset with a stoppage victory by TKO or club and sub.

Andrade/Rodriguez – This is a pretty tough one to call. If Jessica Andrade tries to stand and bully Marina Rodriguez here, I don’t see it ending well for the former champ. However, she’ll have a path if she can get her takedowns going. Ultimately, I’m going to trust Rodriguez to keep this one on the feet for the most part where I think she’ll prove to be much more durable than Andrade. If Rodiguez can get her Muay Thai going the way she did against Michelle Waterson-Gomez and mixes in her knees and elbows, I think she’ll pick this one up via late KO/TKO stoppage or a decision on damage.

Turner/Moicano – Normally, I would probably line this fight a little bit closer, but I absolutely love Jalin Turner in this matchup. Renato Moicano is a very dangerous fighter, but he’s making an awfully quick turnaround from his last fight in February and although he won, it wasn’t without taking damage. Turner will have sizeable height and reach advantages to work with in the striking, and he is also well-versed on the ground if Moicano is able to get the fight down there. I expect Turner to try and pick apart Moicano on the feet in this one and like his chances to get the win via KO/TKO.

Yusuff/Lopes – Another one that is pretty tough to call. Diego Lopes has looked phenomenal since arriving in the UFC and earned his spot on this one. He’s extremely dangerous, particularly early in fights, but this one could be interesting if it gets extended out. I’ve been back and forth on this pick all week and will probably avoid betting this one, but I’m leaning towards Sodiq Yusuff for the pick. As long as Yusuff can survive the early storm from Lopes in the first round, I think he’ll be the more technical fighter down the stretch to squeeze this one out via a close decision.

Holm/Harrison – This is an excellent debut matchup for Kayla Harrison to show where she fits in the UFC. Holly Holm is one of the most respected fighters in women’s MMA and has been around forever. While Holm will be live in this one on the feet, I just can’t see it staying there for very long. Harrison looks to be in phenomenal shape heading into the fight and I think she’ll be able to get this one on the ground. It’s important to remember that one of Harrison’s most dangerous weapons (elbows) were banned in the PFL during her run, so I expect her to batter Holm on the ground in this one enroute to a stoppage win.

Kattar/Sterling – I love this matchup for both fighters as it will be a great litmus test for each. Calvin Kattar is returning from an 18-month injury layoff, while Aljamain Sterling will be moving up to featherweight after his UFC Bantamweight title run was halted last August. Both of these guys have pretty clear paths to winning, but ultimately, I’m giving the nod to Kattar. As long as Kattar’s takedown defense holds up, he will be the much better striker on the feet and should piece up Sterling with his boxing. While Aljo is lethal with his subs, he’s often struggled to get takedowns, and I don’t see that being easier moving up in weight. I think Kattar can get this one done via decision or potentially late TKO.

Prochazka/Rakic – This fight has a good chance of claiming one of those massive bonuses as two of the more dangerous fighters in the light heavyweight division face-off. Jiri Prochazka will be looking to avenge his loss to Alex Pereira back in November and will be facing Aleksandar Rakic in his return from a lengthy injury layoff. While Rakic is an extremely dangerous fighter in his own right, this is an extremely rough matchup to come back to following an injury facing an opponent who has stopped 28 of their 29 wins. I’m ever-so-slightly leaning towards Prochazka by KO/TKO in this one but could see it ending either way via stoppage.

Nickal/Brundage – A lot of people aren’t thrilled with this one being on the main card of such a massive event, but it’s understandable from the promotion’s perspective. They feel like they have a special prospect on their hands with Bo Nickal and want to showcase him here against Cody Brundage. While Nickal should absolutely pick up the win in this one, I think Brundage can push him and make things interesting in the early minutes. Brundage has only been stopped early by power strikers that have spent time at light heavyweight, so I don’t see Nickal putting him out in the opening exchanges. I think Nickal has to grind this one out a bit for the opening round before getting it done early in the second via submission.

Oliveira/Tsarukyan – This matchup has massive stakes in the lightweight division with the winner likely to see a title shot against Islam Makhachev in the near future. Charles Oliveira actually dropped out of a title opportunity last October and now has to get through Arman Tsarukyan for another chance. While Tsarukyan is unquestionably one of the best young fighters in the division and is coming off a nasty early KO/TKO win over Beneil Dariush, I still have to lean with the always dangerous Oliveira in this one. Tsarukyan’s best weapon is his wrestling, but I think Oliveira will be the better fighter on the ground if this one does go there. Unless Tsarukyan can catch Oliveira early on the feet, I think Oliveira will snatch up a submission at some point for the win.

Gaethje/Holloway – The obvious and rightful favorite for Fight of the Night honors, this fight should be an absolute banger for the BMF title. Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway are two of the most popular fighters in the promotion and have very appealing fighting styles for an event of this magnitude. I fully expect these two to walk to the center and let loose from the opening bell, and while Gaethje is probably the rightful slight betting favorite due to his power, I’m actually liking Holloway in this one. I think he’ll be the smarter fighter in this matchup and has the durability to wear Gaethje down as this fight progresses. I think this one makes it into the latter rounds and likely to the scorecards, where I’ll take Holloway to pick the win via tight decision.

Weili/Xiaonan – This matchup is a huge moment for Chinese MMA and while many wanted to see it take place on Chinese soil, I think it’ll receive much more attention taking place as the co-main event of this colossal card. Zhang Weili has been largely dominant in the UFC when she hasn’t been facing Rose Namajunas and looked particularly impressive picking apart Amanda Lemos in her last fight. Yan Xiaonan has some dangerous striking, but I don’t think she’ll be able to stay upright long enough in this one to really get it working. I expect Weili to dominate this one with her wrestling and grappling and to pick up the win inside the distance sometime during the first three rounds.

Pereira/Hill – This fight should be absolute fireworks between two heavy-hitting knockout artists. Alex Pereira has been on an incredible run since joining the promotion picking up championships in two separate divisions, while Jamahal Hill be attempting to regain a title he never lost inside the octagon after he vacated due to injury last year. In an otherwise very tough-to-pick matchup, that injury ultimately makes me lean towards Pereira here. I’m not sure Hill will be able to go hard more than a round or two just nine months removed from a torn Achilles, and while that might be enough time for Hill to get it done, I think Pereira is smart enough to drag this fight into deeper waters while chopping at Hill’s legs and staying relatively safe early. I’ll take Pereira in this one via decision or late TKO stoppage depending how Hill’s legs hold up as the fight progresses.

Overall, this is a really tough card to pick with a vast majority of these fights being rather closely matched, but there are a few spots that stand out. My favorite overall picks are Bo Nickal (by submission), Zhang Weili, Kayla Harrison and Jalin Turner. My favorite underdog spots for betting are Calvin Kattar and Max Holloway. My least confident picks are probably Sodiq Yusuff, Jim Miller, and Marina Rodriguez.

For the betting card this weekend, I opened things up a bit given the occasion and have quite a few different plays out covering a large amount of the card with 12 bets overall. The straight bets: Kayla Harrison Inside the Distance (+130 for one unit), Calvin Kattar by Decision (+275 for .5 units), Nickal to Win in R2 (+420 for .25 units), Nickal to Win by R2 Sub (+850 for .25 units), Nickal to Win by R2 KO/TKO (+1000 for .1 units), Oliveira ML (+190 for .5 units), Oliveira by Submission (+420 for .25 units), Holloway to Win and Over 1.5 Rounds (+200 for .5 units), Weili by Submission (+500 for .25 units), and Pereira by Decision (+600 for .25 units). The parlays: Figueiredo to Win by KO/TKO or Decision + Turner to Win by KO/TKO or Decision (+156 for one unit) and Turner to Win by KO/TKO or Decision + Nickal by Submission + Weili to win in R1/2/3 (+471 for .5 units). That’s twelve plays for a total of 5.35 units on the tracked bets for this weekend.

I highly recommend checking out this card tomorrow and hope everyone enjoys the fights! Best of luck to everybody betting on this one, let’s smoke the books tomorrow night! Posting the graphics for this week down below, be sure to check out our Gallery for more of them, as well as our new Merch page featuring some custom designed MMA shirts.

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