It’s fight day for UFC Vegas 87 and we’re once again back inside the UFC Apex for this one. Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev will meet in a heavyweight clash at the top of the card with ten other fights also scheduled to take place, including a pair of fights that could loom large in the title pictures of their respective divisions. In something of a pleasant surprise these days, there were no misses yesterday during the weigh-ins for the event.

My favorite picks for this card are Muhammad Mokaev, Umar Nurmagomedov, Vitor Petrino and Shamil Gaziev. Mokaev is one of the hottest young prospects in the promotion, and while his bid to break Jon Jones’ record as the youngest champ in UFC history will come up just short, he has an opportunity to punch a ticket for a title shot with a statement win here. Alex Perez has been inactive and struggling with injuries over the past few years, not to mention he’s been stopped six out of seven losses with five of them coming via submission. Mokaev should been able to get this fight down to the mat relatively early and I think there’s a great chance he’ll get Perez out of there in the first two rounds. Nurmagomedov is facing an interesting opponent in Bekzat Almakhan, who is making his UFC debut and saw some scrutiny surrounding his record this week. A handful of Almakhan’s fights were contested under a ruleset with forced standups on the ground, which he won’t have here. Umar should have a dominant wrestling advantage and I think he’ll be able to get this one done with a submission in the second or third round. In the co-main event, Petrino and Tyson Pedro are both extremely dangerous finishers, and there’s a good chance this one won’t make it to see the scorecards. I expect Petrino to weather an early storm and pull away with this one down the stretch as Tyson Pedro has never won outside of the first round and seems to lose a lot of his power as the fight progresses. And in the main event, barring an early knockout from Jairzinho Rozenstruik in the opening exchanges, I think Gaziev will mix in his wrestling and try to work this fight down to the ground where he has two submissions wins in his last five fights. I like Gaziev’s chances of getting this done in the first three rounds and most likely via sub.

Betting on this card won’t be easy with a vast majority of the money lines cooked and well past the point of really being worth playing, but there are a still a few spots I thought were worth a look. I kept my official card pretty small for this one with a pair of two-leg parlays and two prop bets. The parlays: Mokaev ML + Gaziev ML (+115 for .5 units) and Mokaev -3.5 + Petrino by KO/TKO or Decision (+142 for .5 units). Mokaev is my most confident pick of the card, so I paired him up on both of these. Since lines have moved, you can probably add Umar Nurmagomedov ML to the first play and still get it around or back into plus money. The props bets that I ran for today: Gaziev by Submission in R1/2/3 (+340 for .25 units) and Nurmagomedov by Submission in R2/3 (+400 for .25 units). Gaziev will be very live for a KO/TKO stoppage as well, but I like the value on the sub here since it would likely be his clearest and safest route in this fight. I think Almakhan and Nurmagomedov could be a bit competitive in the first round, but I expect the wrestling of Nurmagomedov will take over down the stretch and I like his chances to find the submission. With so many high money lines this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to mix and match plays with this weekend and next by looking for plus money props to get legs underneath UFC 299 money lines next weekend and beat some line movement too. I’m running a six-leg play with Mokaev and Nurmagomedov to win Inside the Distance today with the following money lines next weekend: Mateusz Gamrot, Petr Yan, Jack Della Maddalena and Sean O’Malley. Odds for that one are +2076 on DraftKings and I also sprinkled on the Round Robin by 5’s for it. Hope everyone enjoys the fights and good luck if you’re betting today!

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