The final UFC event of 2023 arrives later today when UFC 296 takes place in Las Vegas. The card is headlined by two championship fights and actually has a very deep lineup even after losing two fights during the week. The main event features Leon Edwards defending his UFC Welterweight title against Colby Covington, while Alexandre Pantoja will be defending his UFC Flyweight title for the first time against Brandon Royval in their second meeting against each other. In what feels like a rarity these days, we had zero weight misses for the event yesterday, which is always a plus.

My favorite picks for this card are Shavkat Rakhmonov, Leon Edwards, Paddy Pimblett, and Cody Garbrandt. Rakhmonov is one of the best rising prospects in the entire promotion and has a chance to firmly solidify himself in the welterweight title picture if he gets past Stephen Thompson in this one. I think he comes out to make a statement and will keep his perfect finish rate intact in the process. For my thoughts on Leon Edwards and how I see that fight playing out, check out my WagerWire UFC 296 main event breakdown. Pimblett has a very favorable matchup here against Tony Ferguson, and as much as I’ll be rooting for El Cucuy, this is Pimblett’s fight to lose. The same can be said for Cody Garbrandt, who is facing Brian Kelleher this weekend. Kelleher is a step down in competition from a lot of the fighters that have given Garbrandt troubles in recent years, and as long as Cody stays smart on the feet, he should be able to get this one done down the stretch.

Since it’s the last event of the year, I’m running a handful of plays for this card with one underdog money line, five prop bets, and a pair of two-leg parlays on the official sheet. The underdog shot is on Cody Durden (+145 for .5 units). I think Tim Elliot laid the blueprint for beating Tagir Ulanbekov, and I trust Durden to make this fight messy and dog his way to a victory. The prop bets: Garbrandt by R2/R3 KO/TKO (+500 for .25 units), Pimblett by R2/R3 Sub (+500 for .25 units), Rakhmonov by KO/TKO (+300 for .5 units), Edwards to Win in R4/R5/Dec (+100 for 1 unit) and that Fight Ends by Split/Majority Decision (+450 for .25 units). The parlays: Garbrandt ML + Pimblett by Sub/Decision (+160 for 1 unit) and Rakhmonov by KO/Sub Double Chance + Edwards ML (+149 for 1 unit). That’s a total of 4.75 units out for this weekend on the tracked bets and I will probably add some late ones for fun, so be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @OddSmokerSteve to catch those. I hope everybody enjoys the fights this evening before the near month-long break before the next card and best of luck to everyone betting!

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