We’re headed back to the Apex this weekend for the second-to-last card of the year with UFC Vegas 83. This card has a pretty good lineup overall and I’m definitely excited for the headliner between Song Yadong and Chris Gutierrez, which should be a lot of fun in the smaller octagon at the Apex. For more of my thoughts on that fight and how it could potentially play out, check out my WagerWire UFC Vegas 83 main event breakdown.

My favorite picks on this card are Song Yadong, Tatsuro Taira, and Anthony Smith. Yadong has seen the better competition at the UFC level, and as long as he avoids letting the leg kicks of Gutierrez pile up, he should pull away in this one down the stretch or find a KO/TKO. The promotion has been pretty careful booking Taira so far during his run with the company, and this matchup is no different. I think he’ll be a level above Carlos Hernandez in the grappling exchanges and will be able to find a stoppage in this fight.

Smith is an underdog in his matchup against Khalil Rountree Jr, but he will be a huge step up in competition for Rountree, and I like his chances in this one if he can stay safe and weather an early storm in the opening minutes. I think Smith will use his fight IQ and look to mix in some grappling in this matchup to ground Rountree, where he will either find a submission or pick up a close decision victory.

I’m keeping the betting card pretty small this weekend with one parlay and a few small prop bets. The parlay is two legs and consists of Taira ITD + Yadong to Win and Ov1.5 (+152 for 1 unit). I also spread one-unit across three Anthony Smith props: Smith by Sub/Dec Double Chance (+380 for .5 units), Smith by R2/R3 Submission (+1300 for .25 units) and Smith by Decision (+700 for .25 units). I’m not playing his money line on my official card since I have it on an untracked parlay that would cash with him winning, but I definitely recommend placing the .5 unit bet there for anyone else instead of the double chance. That’s a total of two units out across the four tracked plays for this card. Best of luck to anyone that’s riding on any of those bets and hope everybody enjoys the fights!

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