We’re headed back to the Apex this weekend for UFC Vegas 82 to finish off the month. There are 14 bouts scheduled for the event and it has an early start time here in the US with prelims starting at 2PM EDT. The card will be headlined by Brendan Allen and Paul Craig in what should be an entertaining battle between ranked middleweights. They had to be separated briefly at the weigh-in for the event, and the faceoff between the two fighters was pretty intense, which is nothing particularly new in a fight involving Craig. There were two weight misses this week: Rafael Estevam (128) and Lucas Alexander (148). Both fighters were fined, and the matchups will proceed. Ailin Perez was also initially over the 136-pound limit for her fight; however, she was able to make it on her second attempt. It’s worth noting that she posted pictures shortly afterward from a hospital bed, and also had to receive stitches underneath her eye on Tuesday.

There aren’t a ton of spots that I really love on this card, but my favorite picks for this weekend are Michael Morales, Brendan Allen, Christian Leroy Duncan and Amanda Ribas. Morales is one of the more talented prospects in the welterweight division and I like this matchup for him against Jake Matthews. I think Morales is slightly better pretty much everywhere, particularly with his striking, and he should be able to pick up a clear decision or late KO/TKO stoppage here. Allen has a dangerous opponent in Craig, but also one that is fairly one-dimensional and prone to being finished. I expect this one to be a fun fight, with Allen avoiding the early submission danger and picking up the stop in the middle rounds. CLD is getting Denis Tiuliulin on very short notice with a full camp, and I love this matchup for him. I think he will likely be able to get Tiuliulin out in the latter rounds in this one. Ribas is coming down from 125 for her matchup with Luana Pinheiro and I think she will be able to find some grappling success in this one to pick up a submission or decision win.

Since there aren’t a ton of spots that I like this weekend, I’m keeping the betting card relatively small for this one. Most of the plays that I have for this card are small prop bets: Ribas by Sub (+400 for .5 units), Ribas by Sub R2/3 (+900 for .25 units), Allen by KO/TKO R2/3/4 (+400 for .5 units), and Morales to win R3/Dec (+140 for one unit). I also played Duncan by KO/TKO + Ribas by Sub/Dec at +188 for .5 units. That’s a total of 2.75 units out on my official plays for this weekend. I have a few underdogs on my picks this week, but none that particularly jumped out and made me bet them. The two I like the most though are Brito and Leavitt. Also, I’m including my full write up for the main event below the picks since it hasn’t been posted this week. Best of luck to everyone betting today and hope everybody enjoys the fights!

UFC Vegas 80: Allen vs Craig – Main Event Pick, Prediction & Favorite Prop Bets

The UFC is returning to the Apex this weekend when they host UFC Vegas 82 tomorrow afternoon. The card features 14 fights and will be headlined by a matchup between ranked middleweights Brendan Allen and Paul Craig. Let’s take a closer look at how this fight could potentially play out and some bets to consider for this one:

Brendan Allen is 22-5 with 18 of his wins coming via stoppage and he will enter this matchup riding a five-fight winning streak. Allen is a pretty well-rounded fighter overall with decent striking and solid submission skills. He has picked up four of the five wins in his recent winning streak with submissions via rear-naked choke, and while a majority of his stoppage wins have come via submission (13), he is more than comfortable standing and exchanging on the feet as well. This will be Allen’s second UFC main event and first that is scheduled for five rounds (the previous was a last-minute change where his fight was elevated from the co-main event).

Paul Craig is 17-6-1 with a 100% finish rate in his wins with 4 KO/TKO and 13 submissions. He will be making his second appearance at middleweight for this one since dropping down from the light heavyweight division. Craig is 1-0 since dropping down in weight and he is one of the most dangerous submission artists on the roster. While he has decent enough striking, he prefers to be on the ground whenever possible and is more than comfortable laying there fighting off of his back. Craig has several big wins on his resume, including a last second submission win over Magomed Ankalaev and an injury stoppage TKO victory over Jamahal Hill.

This is a really interesting matchup between two fighters with very high finish rates who will both be trying to pick up a statement win in this spot. I expect this one to have a pretty frantic pace early in the fight, with Craig likely looking to get the fight to the ground, while Allen will probably want to keep his distance and work his striking a bit to wear down his opponent. Assuming this fight makes it out of the opening minutes and into the second round, I think Allen will become more willing to mix up his attacks at that point and could look for some takedowns of his own. Neither fighter has fourth or fifth round experience in the UFC, and I’m not so sure they will get much or any here either. I think there’s a pretty good chance this fight ends in the middle rounds with Allen picking up the win via stoppage. Craig has been stopped in five of his six losses, with four of them ending via KO/TKO.

As for betting this fight, I don’t particularly love how high Allen’s money line has climbed at this point, but also think the line is still pretty justified. Allen will have more paths to victory in this matchup, while Craig’s chances rely almost entirely on him being able to find a submission. If you want to explore prop bets to avoid the heavy chalk on the money line, I recommend taking a look at Allen to win inside the distance as a starting point. And while most of Allen’s finishes have come via submission, I think KO/TKO is the place to look for this matchup if you want a bet that pays out a plus money return.

Pick: Brendan Allen (-440 ML)

Recommended Props: Brendan Allen by KO/TKO or Submission (-260), Brendan Allen by KO/TKO (+125), and Allen by KO/TKO in R2/3/4 (+400)

Current odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook

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